Daniel Boone

If the " cold" pattern we're going into lessens in severity or longevity, that will be crucial in determining what kind of Winter ensues i.m.o.. Also, it is possible even if it lasts until late Month ala,1989. If I remember correctly, blocking broke down then and allowed the Western Ridge to suddenly come East. That MJO Plot is still worrisome as it usally Trump's other Drivers if they're not very prominent or if the MJO Wave itself is very weak low Amp.. As rehashed in earlier post, hopefully Webb is onto something and it plays out if you want at least an average Winter overal imo.

Check out Eric Webbs Write-up regarding how that might not work out like usual on X. The +TNH Pattern. The ABNA Connection. I'm not sold on it totally changing the MJO effects but, his research shows possibility.

Notice I said at time's. Also, the possibility of continual LP formation or strengthening off the NE and SE Provinces can act as a blocking mechanism and alter that eastward Ridge progression. That was one aspect of Feb 2015 . Continual LP development that worked in conjunction with the postive NAO in pulling Arctic air from the Arctic South into the Eastern States. Sort of opposite of the weird SER/-NAO Linkage.

Agree. On either pattern, whether the mild most of us were basically sold on or the possible one upcoming.

Exactly.

An excerpt from Webb on X : While there are many reasons this winter is starting out so cold in the Eastern US this year… Imo, the -EPO/+TNH pattern in early Dec is largely being driven by low frequency variability (not the MJO) from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool. Namely, the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool is rectifying long-term observed changes since the early-mid 20th century that conflict with most climate model forecasts: the Indian & West Pacific oceans warming at a faster rate than the East-Central Pacific (in part as a response to AGW), which changes the downstream waveguide over the N Pacific & N America to resemble the +TNH pattern.

The Snow mizers looking at that blob in the Atlantic, lol

Good memories. My Uncle lived in NW Ohio during '78 Blizzard and said drifts were up to their 2 Story Windows. There's several great Articles with Pics , Videos and Interviews regarding it.

Yeah, unfortunately not. Man how I miss the good ole days !

If blocking manifests the 2nd half of December it could help mitigate the effects of Trough westward retrogression being shown late Month. The SST'S just south of Newfoundland and around Nova Scotia is supportive of LP in that area. That could help pull the Urals HP on Southwestward and pop a legit -NAO. Just my rusty, relic has been opinion.

Here's an excerpt from Archives of the '49 One's : The Blizzard of 1949 is considered one of the worst on record for the northern Plains. The first storm began January 2 and continued through January 5, with heavy snow, strong winds and cold temperatures. Subsequent storms through mid-February produced enormous snow drifts that paralyzed much of the region.

Yeah, that's right. It's listed in the NOAA Archives.The 40's featured a big one as well.

That was from the Plains Blizzard of 1949 I think. What a Storm it must have been. There were 20 ft Drifts in part's of my area during the 93 Blizzard and the Great Appalachian Storm of 1950 but, generally in area's above 2500 feet.

Agree. Should get at least a couple minor snow events in the first 2 weeks of December probably for the famous I-40 North Jeff alluded to. Usually you get a relaxation in a Cold Pattern after a full unload. It is possible a full Pattern flip but not completely sold on that due to Webber's abna research. That Pacific Ridge may end up shifting back east and poleward after the retrogression. The PV is expected to strengthen so, will lend to a +AO. So, not good there irt strong cold coming south but, if a +TNH Pattern restablishes during that, we could still get cold enough air into the area to support Snow. The NAO will probably be neautral to positive late December and January due to the + QBO but, a +TNH works well with that. Those SST'S Around Nova Scotia are supportive of LP in that area of which could assist a tall PNA Ridge and mitigate a +NAO. Jan.2015 and Feb. 2015 once again used as great examples here. Those type Patterns can blow the typical mild +AO/NAO guaranteed Torches out of the Water. The Pattern is a rarity so, you can't bank on it but, Webber's research does lend support for a greater likelihood of it this Winter. Food for thought.

If we get a +TNH Pattern at regular intervals through the Winter Don we could also wind up with a Feb. 2015 type Pattern at time's. Positive AO/NAO tall PNA Ridge. Eric Webber has brought up a case for that with research backing.

Clippers/ Sw's provided decent Snowfalls in January 2014 as I recall even east of Apps. Feb. 2015 was historic and was , as we all know +TNH and resultant + PNA . There should be somewhat of a Southern Stream since the Nina is so weak. Models may be underestimating it's presence. Hopefully we get deeper divers this time around as well.

Right man. Hopefully it gets the Job done.

Hopefully, they're underestimating the Southern Stream. Since the Nina is extremely weak there's going to be some STJ Action. Also, blocking subsiding will cause models to lift the Trough NE. Thing is, those SST'S around Nova Scotia should help keep LP wanting to setup around there which should act to keep troughiness over the Eastern US. Finger's crossed on that but, those SST'S are favorable for a Ssw based 50-50 Low(60-45).

+TNH. Looks like heading the way Webber's research showed. There'll probably be short periods of Greenland blocking but not likely sustainable due to westerly QBO. The tendency for LP wanting to hang out off the NE Coast and around Nova Scotia and South of Newfoundland should be there due to the SST'S and that will work to act to pump up blocking or pseudo block occasionally. If we recall in the great Feb 2015 Cold Snowy Pattern we had a positive NAO but continual LP development that would keep CPF and the Trough pulled down over the Eastern US in tandem with the +TNH and resultant+PNA. IF that were to be the main Pattern, it would turn out rather harsh as we all know. I'm still not sure even at this juncture. It looked clear-cut couple months ago but, not now.

Further East had mixing issues.

December 56 warmest on Record. Jan 57 near normal, Feb much above average. December 85 cool with a white Christmas with above average Winter Snow. All 3 Months Colder than Avg. December 88 near normal January 89 mild , February normal. Slightly below average Snowfall. 08-9 near normal winter below avg snow. 02-03 cold and snowy December thru Feb. Dec and January 58 cold snowy. Slightly mild February. Dec 89 record cold slightly above average Snow here. Ktri I think was below on Snowfall. Rest of Winter very mild. Dec. 76 very cold above avg Snow. Went on to be one of coldest Winter's on Record with above average Snowfall.

Of course, the precip avg is going to be less with a cold pattern . Above normal snow can result with below average precip as we all know.

Yeah, shades of Dec 89 with a touch of January 2014 and Feb 2015 with those looks.

We have better SSTS around Newfoundland this go around too allowing for the desired 50-50 Low setup.

Just hopefully not afterward as rest of Winter stunk.