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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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Hit 40 here today. First time above the 30's since December 31.
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'77-78 along with '39-40 and '69-70 should be in your top 5 with '76-77 number 1 in the past 100 years. '62-63 . '57-58 and '59-60 probably top 10 with one of those maybe rounding out the top 5 bunch. All just off top of my head as lost my Records Years back in a moving process unfortunately.
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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
Daniel Boone replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
I agree. Makes sense with a la nina and current Pattern mixup. -
January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
Daniel Boone replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
Exactly. Enso weighed heavily . -
Yeah, coincides with the warmup end of Month into FEB. Goes into very low amp 4 before COD. May leave a Ph.3 reflection on the Pattern. Will need to monitor other Drivers regarding the end Outcome late Jan/early February.
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Yeah, that's the problem with many "official" Reports even now ; they don't measure properly. Pennington gap Station a perfect example . They only measure whenever they decide to. I asked Employees at the City Plant that work there. Terrible ! That Data, as well as the other Station Data is fed into the Model Ingest System and used in the Models Output.! It absolutely burns me up. It's no wonder Models are as they are in our Area. The Terrain makes it hard enough to Forecast but, flawed Data makes it worse and should be rectified if possible. QC. Btw. I am at 12.6 Inches for the Season officially now.
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Yeah, I noticed that as well. Without blocking or a strong Arctic push into the deep south and at least upoer SE with formidable HP North of the area the STJ would cut into the OV with the western Ridge alignment.
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Thing is, you as well as other's , some esteemed Mets, said that 2 Months ago. I'm retired now but, was in the forecasting business for 40 Years. Nothing's concrete when you have competing Driver's with one of the biggest typical ones being weak. Aigle on X is a 19 yo that you reposted the Tweet from. Hardly a more respectable enthusiast than what you said of the "weenie buckle up Mets" . My opinion, based on experience and Analog Data mainly, is that February will be warmer but, still rather back and forth in the East. May even be some major Snow storms. Right now, it's actually a tough call. Originally, my thoughts back in early November was for a very mild, Nina and -PDO dominated Winter. I actually thought we had a shot at a warmest on Record. Some things changed rather quickly and look where we are. Anyway, not meaning to come off harsh. Just pointing out a few things as maybe some food for thought. Overall, you make some good posts .
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12.6" for the Season here now. Snowcover on North facing slopes and shade since Jan. 3rd.
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The Northern System over Illinois pulled moisture north into it. Areas in Indiana , Illinois and Ohio are getting more than forecasted. The precip area with the southern System stayed predominantly South.
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At least that front runner band dumped you a couple inches. The heavy precip to our South is not being pulled North. The System to our NW is slowly dropping SE and is consolidating moisture west of here up into it. We needed a stronger phase of the two. Or the NW System been a little faster so they could of phased better. As is , it's causing clusters in between the two and leaving voids.
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I agree. Hopefully everything with start to mesh soon.
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Another aspect to note; a large solid area has moved up into Illinois .Mo and Indiana. A full consolidated Phase with the Southern LP doesn't look to have occurred , at least just yet.
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The outer Band that developed and moved up through SWVA and SEKY is pulling Moisture into it while the main precip area is consolidating in it leaving a void between them sadly. We just got a little over a quarter of an inch with the front Band while Norton has close to 2 inches from it now. I feared that might happen when that out front area developed earlier but was hoping the solid area would just catch up and fill in.
