Daniel Boone

Yeah, remember that well. The January 20 85 Arctic Front Snowfall was amazing in that it dumped a swath of 2-8 inches along it's path all the way from Illinois, Missouri, western Tn and Ky across Indiana and Ohio down through our area and east to Western NC. I measured 7 inches. I think Knoxville recorded 7 and I believe Ktri 5". Flurries floated around the afternoon before the front came through that night with temps in middle 30's. Temps crashed after front passed around 9 p m. and by Midnight was already below Zero !

Dec and January 10-11 come to mind. Moderate to strong Nina then. There's other instances as well. Enough blocking, backed flow can alter the typical response as most know. Particularly a weak Nina .

Agree. If we can get some STJ and NS phasing we can get that '96 like Big Dog. With the Polar Jet digging that far South there's a decent likelihood of at least a Miller B to A transfer providing Trough dives far enough West . If the NS were to dive to the Gulf it could create cyclogenesis in the Gulf even without the STJ. Although rare these days the possibility is still there.

Blocking, if realized should help force Trough further West. If not it should allow for NS Vorts to dive further South so, should get some chances for Snow one way or the other.

We had Snow cover on North facing slopes and Shady area's from Mid December to mid February. Rivers and Ponds were frozen and Snow covered.

I'll check it out. Coz is hard to beat at Medium and Long range as we know. I used to stay in touch with him . Need to catch up with him. An interesting bit of info ; He was the reason Dave Dierks of WCYB got into Meteorology. They were College Pals at Iowa University and he talked Dave into changing Major to Meteorology.

That looks 1960ish Winter like.

It was incredible.

Same here. All but 2018 were great.

If the blocking is realized and a 50-50 manifests that should place the Trough further West.

As tiny Tim said, Merry Christmas and God bless Everyone !

The Typical Plains/Midwest Nina Blizzard is going to be displaced 500 Miles SE this Winter. I called it first !

Yeah, I can't really find anything or anybody that knows about any update to the GFS over the last Year but, it sure is acting like something was done. Merry Christmas Jeff !

4.1" . 2.7 of that Nov. 21-22.

Yeah, that's what I was alluding to earlier regarding it sending out pieces of energy taking the low Road. Sliders. Sometimes they can spin up Gulf Lows as well. Used to happen in the 70's fairly regularly.

Wouldn't that be a Snow Lovers paradise !

The concern is definitely legit as we've all witnessed and discussed many times. I hate when that happens as many times a System just bowls down into that area over and over continuously pulling the Trough back. Hopefully, that doesn't happen. Other Model Suites should start showing some semblance of the possibility in the next few Day's if the GFS is onto something.

Hopefully the GFS is being GooFuS.

MJO Ph 6 stall. GFS keying on that.

Yeah, it's likely seeing the MJO stalling in Ph 6 and crawling into 7 later. That's what it's solution looks like. If it were to be right, it's shut the blinds for a long while.

Yeah, the GFS is likely "thinking" the MJO is stalling in p6 and gradually getting into 7 later. That's what it's output's look like to me.

You've hit on what the problem is I believe. I think the GFS incorporates the MJO as one of it's top "Ingredient" ( can't think of the proper word so..lol) in it's Medium Range Equations.

Yeah, it's as if it traded places with the Euro in holding energy back in the SW. As you alluded to, that can and does happen sometimes. Hopefully it doesn't and if it does, blocking will still keep us in the Trough and that could act as a southern branch feature spitting disturbances along the low Road. That works out good sometimes too.

Lr uses enso greatly but, medium I don't think so. It's output does look nina though

That western ridging tendency is what I like too buddy. That's one of my reasons I believe January will be a cold one overall . There's still that worry something akin to late December 1989 occurs. +PNA November and December. The Ridge suddenly got shoved East at the very end of December and never returned West. I don't know if there was any real concrete proof of what caused a wholesale 500 mb shift that never went back really at all. Although, it did by April as I recall several elevated Snowfalls then. Hopefully, everything pans out for us.