Daniel Boone

What really hurt is what John and I touched on in the Tn Valley sub, The Western Ridge has nearly broke down and is displaced too far West . Models originally had that centered over the Rockies. That allows this System to climb further North than it would have west of us. If snow pack existed to our North the Baroclinic Zone would set up further South and the Storm would probably travel farther south and we'd still got hit as well. So, couple flaws fouled us up with this one. I'm with you in still being hopefull.. Just not as enthusiastic of an old fashioned January, Winterwise, as I was.

Not now but, they will later. No issue for them.

Yep. Product of what you mentioned earlier. Western Ridge Placement.

Exactly. If that Ridge had stayed where it was originally projected we were golden.

Looking like at least another healthy Rain event for the area.

Some accumulation above 2000 feet on Stone Mountain just north of Jonesville. Snowcover lowers the further west on the Mountain. Looks like down to around 1700 ft above Ewing in the White Rocks area of the Mountain. Probably an inch or so above 2500 there with a heavy dusting to half inch down to 1700 ft.

NAM is showing confluence shifting east with each run now though. If it's right, probably can chalk up it not coming further South. Had the Storm came sooner we'd got it. Had it came a day or so later , it would of been forced South by Canadian HP coming down and we'd likely been hit as well. Just bad timing for us.

If those ensemble depictions were to be realized about 100 miles further South than shown we'd be in great shape. Looks sorta like the highest expected averaged out area is inline with the Track of this upcoming Sunday System.

The sad thing is, I've saw this play out like that quite a bit over my relic lifetime. One misses just to our North, the other South and then generally cold/ dry with a few flurries or dustings then warms up enough that the next big system is Rain. We wound up in the Screw zone those Winter's. The early to mid 70's come to mind. Hopefully, not the Case this time but , sadly looking like a possibility. On a positive note for you folks on that side of the Mountains, you all faired better than us during those times as the Southern Systems would graze you all and give some accumulation and Cad helped with the other some. I

Some moderate to heavy snow falling here now . Not sticking as Temp is 35.

That GFS run was just terrible if you like snow in the Great Valley. More along the Gulf Coast . Kind of laughable in that it has St Louis getting about 4 Feet ! Knoxville getting hammered with a dusting.

Sure hope not but would be our luck. I'd rather no big system having come out of the SW and have 1-3 or 2-4" Clippers than have it come along and piss on us and dump North and NW of us while shoving everything way South after passing. Hopefully we get in a Pattern that produces at least 2-3 Clippers from the NS after this debacle and the next way deep south Storm. If not, cold and dry until the pattern breaks. There's still hope with this one. We need Canadian HP to drop down faster or the 50-50 to create more confluence and force the LP from coming all the way up to Tennessee but to slide East across Alabama and Georgia.

Yeah. Seems it's slower solution is causing it to estimate a bit of a SER pump up and pull up that extreme warmth.

With a formidable block in place as is being advertised used to that would cause a shift South from 4 or so days before event until time of arrival providing the blocking didn't wane or shift away. So, hopefully the gradual south shift continues.

Used to be with formidable blocking in place there was a South Trend with the Models within the last 3-4 days before Event providing the Blocking wasn't waning or moving out.

With blocking in place( Greenland and 50-50) the last five days before event usually sees a South trend unless Block is fading.

There's that Ozark to Kentucky heavy snow zone.

Yeah, saw those earlier. One dud in there snow wise. 2000-01 .

One thing that has happened irt the 6th System in particular is the Ridge out West is further West and not very strong allowing the SW System to pull the Cold further west as well. We wanted the Trough further west than what we had in early December and what was being advertised but, didn't count on it dropping down the Rockies and Southern Plains as looks to be the Case. A tad further East down the Plains/ Ms Valley with the storm either transferring to Gulf or moving ene from Louisiana/Mississippi area would be great. As it stands, it may alter the 500mb Structure. With the MJO projected low amp 8 to possibly 1 it may not be enough to help if the structure gets off kilter from what we want and has been advertised so long. Could be what the EPS is "glitching" on . Just a wild arse guess.

Yeah, hopefully something akin to a March 9-10 1960 Track and profile will manifest. Now, that would be a true Winner . As you know, that's part dream but also some possibility with the Setup. The UK has the System probably coming at worst timing as a little sooner, more cold in place or a little later and canadian high surpresses it. That's how it looks to me.

True. The concern is there too that the first one dumps to our North while the other's dump's South. I've saw that disappointment a good number of times. One of the Reasons I'm rooting for this one. If we happen to luck out and get it, at least we'd gotten a good one bagged.

Yeah, the worst scenario. Chicago to Detroit Blizzard.

I hope/ pray it's wrong. What a slap if right. If right, probably a Ohio Valley/Midwest Blizzard.

This is looking like an Ozarks Special aa far as major clean pass Snowstorm. Hello Springfield Mo and Mountain home Arkansas. Those places get some real whopper's sometimes. As far as our area, probably a sloppy mess with northern Areas still a decent amount of Snow and Ice. Kentucky should be a big winner as may be similar to January '94 setup.Snow wise as well. As we all know, this one's far from being clear-cut yet. Hopefully, we get a bit south and eastward with the heavy snow axis akin to the latest GFS but , further East. The Great Valley is always in danger of a warm nose, downsloping etc., regardless of a better Track as being between the Cumberlands and Smokies iverall really hurts the area irt Snow, as we all know.

That's all we don't need. Hopefully, enough cold press will allow for snow. Still plenty time to go to the earlier Icon Solution. Although, I must say it's worrisome to see it and the CMC go to the cutter ice possibility.