Agree with everything you said man . Gefs more than likely too quick transitioning to western Trough. I saw where the usual heat mizers on the main forum are hugging up with it after it starting showing the flip, lol.
An inch and a half of Snow and sleet so far. Had a period of heavy snow with half to dollar sized Flakes. Snow is glazed flakes so not sticking to trees. Very lt sleet and snow currently. 25 degrees.
Hopefully, either the GL is weak or non existent or further East. In February 1972 a Miller A moved up and Phased with a GL Low and produced a widespread Snow Storm fro Tn Valley through the Northeast. 8" here from that one .
If the MJO does go to Ph 1 and blocking continues could be correct. Right now, Pattern is acting like late stage Ph 7 with blocking. Makes sense in a way as it went ph. 7 before going basically COD.
That area should over perform imo as the low level wind continues from the NE for much of the day there. Wouldn't be surprised you get at least 5-6 inches if enough Moisture falls within the all Snow timeframe.
Looking likely your NOVA stomping grounds is going to get hammered. My inlaws live just above Winchester near Charles town. There's a live stream set up about a mile from them I'll be watching.