Daniel Boone

Looking like A Carolina Special to me. I'm glad for those folks, particularly the Piedmont. Sad for us. We'll have to settle for our dustings for now. Another 150 Miles West would be great. Hopefully we'll set up a better Trough alignment for us before long. Hopefully I'm wrong about this one.

Hopefully Canadian Suite is correct. Thermal flawed with Ukie that run.

From what I can tell, they were predominantly East based Larry ,Just running off memory. Maybe you can find more clarity on that. Also, blocking looks to of been in place. I remember the long cold stretch in 2011 well. Incidentally, as I'm sure you know, that was a fairly strong Nina. Strong Blocking that Winter.

Ok. If we can find whether it was east west or basin wide those cold Year's.

Can you research that and see if there's a connection ?

Excellent Post Man !

Yes. That's what I was referring to irt research. I'd saw a thing or two on where you had did that. Was that dependant on La nina location Larry ? Im thinking that is what was batted around as the possible reason.

It's a blend of the Model's as most know as it's pretty obvious. I don't know how many are used or which one's to come up with the Average of them all. It's been awhile since I was told by the NWS . They just explained it and said it's the one they use. I don't think any Model's are given more weight than the others. If the better Model is showing 10" for a given area while 2 of the worst are showing zilch, the printout is going to be very low and may be way off. So, it's overall a good Idea Model. You get the average of the Consensus so to speak but, it can sometimes be way off because of what I mentioned above.

Just looking at MJO Charts one would expect a mild Pattern in the East. Goes to show other Drivers sometimes dictate or throw the MJO effects off kilter. Even the location of La nina apparently according to some research.

Not saying there will be nearly that much but as far as the coverage area, that'll probably be about right if the MJO traverses through 7 and affects the Pattern as the Euro seemed imply then, with blocking in place. Hopefully the boundary sets up further South. Man, we'd be in big time business then.

The way things are going, it's really hard to say. For all intents and Purposes P6 should be warm going by the Chart's. It's obviously not . As we know, the MJO has been of low Amp or in the COD alot. Also, the Kelvin and Rosbys have been creating chaos as you've been pointing out. My take is, like you, there'll be a strong but probably short lived warm-up. If the depiction from the EC you posted is correct it may last longer. I just don't buy that deep of a Trough out West. Just my 2 cents worth.

The Nina is still going as evidenced by Satellite Imagry. That is still hampering the STJ. IF the Polar Jet can dive to the Gulf as weathernut alluded to earlier, then we wouldn't need the STJ as it should spawn Cyclogenesis. We could be working into the '95-96 Pattern if we start seeing that happen. Miller B to Miller A Transfer's. Hybrids. Hopefully, the mean Trough becomes far enough west to support the disturbances diving down the Front Range and Plains to the Gulf. If blocking is strong and we make it to MJO P8 , with a weakening Nina this could become a probability imo.

I think they're too low on Amounts for Plateau and upper Valley Locations. We got 1/4-1/2 inch Sunday and they were saying no accumulation. With the NWF Snshwrs after the synoptic shield leaves there should be scattered additional accs from those. That's not mentioned in their discussion.

Thanks Buddy . I'm still not up to par. Energy just doesn't want to come back. Has me rather down physically and mentally. Hopefully I'll get lined out and start participating more. Good discussions going on. Hopefully we reel in a couple big dogs before long. At least it looks almost guaranteed of several light events at the very least. That's a plus nowadays. Snow on snow.

Is that 10:1 or kuchera

Sorry to hear you're sick man. I hope you recover quickly. It did a number on me. I'm still not back to normal. We Had 2 Dustings here Today. One around 8 , the other around 10. Contrary to the MRX Remark of mid to upper 30's in early Afternoon, it stayed 30-32 here from around 9 AM till 5 when it hit the twenties.

I'm late to the Party today. Been feeling rough all day with only 3-4 hours Sleep last night. Things are looking interesting this coming Week. Just looking over the Evening Package Forecast for the upcoming week from KMRX and am a bit puzzled as I'm curious to which Models they derived it from. It's nothing like the GFS . It's pretty mild considering what Data I've seen. Of course, you know how conservative and generally warm biased in the medium and LR they typically are. Anyone have any idea of what they may be looking at?

Prayers for your Mom and family Powell.

Exactly. As far as the upper great Valley you see the sharp drop in amount then the rise after reaching the App Spine, that can be a bit of Downsloping but ,probably in this situation( as shouldn't be much wind) just Model interpretation of that area getting less as alot of downsloping events caused that area to get less and therefore all that data has been ingested into the Model's and they " assume" less for there. Also, some erroneous Weather Observer Data has gone into the Model Ingest System for several Years now from that general Area. That's a Factor as well.

Yeah, and there's quite a bit of good hits in them.

P28 and satisfaction for the Winter.

It's tough for me. I like a big storm but, if it's just one and no more I'm more inclined to several light events I guess. However, if it were a true big dog ( foot or more) then probably it.

It would be our luck.

He's not yet. He just, in another tweet, basically was hinging that Greenland Blocking was why, lol. Of course, as we know, strong Greenland Blocking can mitigate even strong warm MJO effects. However, from Larry's research that is not what the reason was but, something to do with La nina and the location of it, if I remember correctly.

Snowfall Averages have really dropped off over the Decade's. 1950-1980 Average for downtown Pennington gap was. 20.7" and that was at one of the lowest elevation area's and measurements weren't measured as precise as Now. For instance, measurements were taken generally at one location in the Lawn and not until the Observer got up in the Morning if Snow fell at night. So, if it ended at 12 or so that Night and settling , melting or drifting occured the actual amount accumulated would be missed. We measure in Intervals during a Storm and add until it Ends now thereby not losing any measurements to sublimation, settling etc..