Daniel Boone

Just started snowing steady here. 30.2 degrees.

Wow !

As of now things are looking better irt amounts provided no dry intrusion. Area's that were ti be Virga now are seeing Snow reach the ground. Maybe it's the heavier rates aloft Models may of missed that saturated sooner or could be some lift pulling more moisture up from a fairly moist lower Level and helping with saturation.

Welcome to the Board !

Decenber and January 2011 and January 2014 had several. I totally see your point though Holston. They are rare anymore.

If it does like last time, it may even touch five and then crawl through 6. That would probably be a Months worth of crap for us if Blocking doesn't mitigate it.

Yeah, COD heading toward six looks like on the Chart and that was the 8th so, extrapolating that course would be coming into six now. Sat Imagery as Carvers alluded looks rather undeterministic irt where really.

The MJO is basically a spread out cluster or clusters if you will. It not being very defined in a single area is making it's effects on the Pattern harder to pinpoint. Forcing is at a wider Area so to speak. If that consolidates into 8 later in the Month , or whatever phase, that typical Phase outcome should become most evident providing Other Driver's don't overpower it, imo.

Same here. 34.8 Degree's as of 9:35 PM

Yeah. I can remember back in my Day's of the Criteria being that plus Temps below 20 F.

39 here now with lt rain. It was snowing on Stone Mountain at 2500ft and up. As well as Wallen Ridge just south of Pennington gap at around 2800ft awhile ago when the band of Precip was heaviest.

It's beginning to look like it.

Oh, I didn't know. I don't understand people like that.

He may of thought those were minus marks before the numbers Larry.

As usual, got some decent Year's snow wise but some not so good as well. One great one (2011) One terrible (1990) .

Yeah, terrible. Definitely not festive in the Weather Department unless you're into that kind of Christmas. That would be samey as a Winter wx lover enjoying Snow on the 4th of July, lol. That Winter had below average Snowfall.

Yep. That Aleutian HP is where we need the LP to be. Need that HP over Alaska and need that LP near the GOA to move to Aleutians. As is, that Pac Jet's going to roar between the Goa Low and the Epac and West Coast Ridge. if it comes in strong enough it'll flood the US with Pacific Air and downslope off the Rockies spreading warmth. If it were to blast in further North it could potentially flood western and central Canada scouring the cold out. Kentucky Post was right on with that post about needing that Ridge to link with the Alaskan HP.

Yeah, been watching a live Cam near Petersburg where there's around 4 inches in areas of grass and bushes and it's hammering big Flakes.

South or Southwest. SE Virginia is getting hammered now. Been watching Live Cam from Colonial Heights, near Petersburg. 4 inches and pouring big Flakes. Truly rare for there this early.

Yeah. I had noticed that vort in the GOA last Week and thought that typically hurts us but, was weak at the time and looked like was going to be shunted eastward and then maybe travel down the Jet SEward. Some Model's are indicating a gradual +TNH developing as the Aleutians Alaskan Ridge moves over Alaska and expands over the Arctic Domain. Sooner the better for us if you want the real Cold and much higher Snow Probability.

Didn't last long and ended as a mix. It was pretty heavy for a few minutes. 0.05" from it melted in gauge in about 20 minutes.

Snowing lt to moderate here and 35 degree's.

'95-96 was weak La Nina. 2010-11 was a moderate to strong La Nina. Both featured alot of cold and Snow. I've not looked into how the Walker or Hadley Cells were those Winters. don't know if you can get Archived Data irt that. Maybe you can see what you can find Jax. I will say, if they were active in the way the upcoming is predicted, I wonder if the strong Blocking those Winters countered that. ?. Law of physics would say strong upstream Blocking would alter the effects of the Cells thereby keeping the Jet from being forced North . Of course, there would be a battle between the two as they'd war against each other. So, depending on how strong the EWB'S are and how persistent I suppose on whether they would force the Block out or not. Of course , as of now strong Blocking doesn't exist on ensembles. They actually look as if what blocking there is is eroding but, that could be them seeing the Cells forcing doing that. The Other fly in the Ointment is what Carvers mentioned about the MJO. How will that affect the Cells typical response.?.

Another thing to note about '95-96 is there was a warmup after the aforementioned Snowstorm in December. It ended right before Christmas and Rain changed to Snow here in the early morning hours of Christmas and we had an inch of Snow at 7 A.M. One other thing about that Winter; it did have an extreme Arctic Outbreak. February 3rd and 4th Heavy Snow fell dropping 10-24 inches in the mid and upper great Valley. the front passed and the Temp fell to -21 feb 5 with the high of -4 in Pennington gap.

That One was a SE traveling System that bottomed in the mid South and intensified and moved ENE South of us . I measured 7 inches in Pennington gap. Roanoke got 10". It was evening of the 9th and morning of 10th.