JayPSU
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Looking at the latest HRRR, it’s very clear that it’s going to be a nowcast event for our area. When you have 10” in Dublin and maybe 2” in Bexley, modeling just can’t nail it down that specifically. It’s going to be painful, but we’re literally going to have to wait and watch.
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RGEM still has a good thumping tonight with almost 8” here. So NAM, 3k NAM and RGEM still on board for tonight. Going to be tight!
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I still don’t understand why people do this. It’s not the 1940’s, even if we got a foot of snow, give it a day at the most and roads will be fine to travel on.
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We’re pretty much where I was thinking we’d be, mixing all day with no accumulation, then tonight when the cold air comes crashing in we thump. Here’s hoping the GFS depiction of the deform band is right! Buckeye is going to need to charge for his counseling services today.
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The GEM has a version of it too.
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Almost all of that comes from 7pm on when the cold air crashes in and the crushing deform band sets up. This seems to be the lesson of tonight’s models.
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Yes and no. I think we’re closing in on a scenario where we have two parts. The first part during the day looks like it will be a mixed bag with not much accumulation. Then in the evening as the cold air rushes in and we get a deform band, we get a good thumping.
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Meanwhile, the HRRR is still looking fantastic.
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I mean holy hell. Over a foot.
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18Z GFS absolutely destroys us with the deform band. Here's hoping!
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LOL...I know it's terrible...I just want complete and total model agreement. Is that asking too much???
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The RGEM just refuses to get on board.
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Started looking at the HRRR since we're getting into its range now. The 18Z run is a thing of beauty. We ride the line for a bit there, but really solution.
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I’m sure there is, I’m more excited that our typically overly warm and north models are not too far away from a perfect hit.
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Wow, even with the overly warm thermals, the GEM gives CMH 10” of snow.
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On the 12Z GFS, where it stays all snow, it’s over a foot of snow. Unfortunately that line is from Delaware County on north. Just needs a very small adjustment and we’re golden.
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The FV3 looks like the 3k NAM with widespread 6” totals but the heaviest is in a band just south of me where 12”+ falls.
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It’s one of the models we look at when we’re bored waiting in between the real models, or something we look at in times of denial and desperation.
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Well from extreme NW Franklin county on north, yes. But that’s one hell of an “adjustment!” Edit: Nevermind. Beyond 48 hours, still hammer time so yes.
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Liking the 3km NAM much better.
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LOL!!! Ah yes, the thing that all of us, the entire board, secretly thinks when reading his posts but are just too kind to actually write. Had to be written though!
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The GFS definitely is looking to cave to the Euro. It doesn't have the details worked out (just look at the low pressure center jump in hours 48 to 54), but it was a pretty significant step toward the Euro.
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Looks like the 18Z NAM caved.
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Looking at the FV3 on pivotal, it’s about 6-8” of snow in Franklin County with almost .50” of ZR.
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The Ukie not bailing is a good sign that perhaps the Euro won't either.
