Itstrainingtime

I am the reason that Bubbler is no longer posting. He has not been active in our thread since my "Day In The Life" post. I did reach out and sincerely apologize but it was not acknowledged. It has been difficult for me to accept as I pride myself on building relationships and yet I destroyed one on here. I do hope he returns, I also told him that I would leave so that he could feel comfortable returning. Based on the comments from many in here, I do think it's the right decision for me to step aside. I am so very sorry to each and every one of you - that one post that I made changed everything in this thread. I feel terrible for what I did.

Should be an interesting time period to watch - MU has highs in the 70s to low 80s during this general time frame.

MU reached 84 today. My high was 82.

80 at noon here. 81 at MU.

It was all about the night time low temps. For all of my life I have always been colder than MDT for low temps. The only exceptions are special situations involving a cold front that came through MDT but not through my area yet OR a winter storm situation where warm air invades my area quicker off the ocean. Outside of that, I'm going to be a few degrees colder than MDT 95% of the time. For whatever reason, this winter MDT was running consistently about 3-5 degrees colder than down here almost every night. No idea what changed, but that's where the difference happened. My original point was much more specific to snowfall because you were calling a bust for Elliott prematurely and it came back to get you.

Final winter stats for Lanco (MU) vs Elliott's Winter Forecast: Total snowfall: 16.5" (prediction was 10-20") Snowfall for this past winter was LESS than last winter's 18.0") Temps: Dec: 1.6 AN, Jan: 2.2 BN, Feb: 1.9 AN (prediction was 2+ degrees AN for the season) MU forecast 3 weeks of extreme winter from approximately 12/20 through 1/10. We had just about 3 weeks of extreme winter though it came about 2 weeks later than he predicted on 11/1. Overall: Perfect snow forecast, he went too cold for the season overall mainly due to January being even colder than he saw but he had the spirit of length of time correct. @Blizzard of 93 you were sort of mocking his forecast as a major bust back in January in regards to snowfall but he ended up nailing it.

Rain here seems lighter than radar would suggest. I was just under reds and oranges and it was barely moderate intensity.

12z Euro has an menacing line of severe weather plowing through during that time frame.

GFS...oh my, GFS. Still showing a paste bomb on 4/1...

All to often theme for months on end. At least the greater Harrisburg area did really well compared to most of us with the last system. JNS had 4X what I got and I think you and Blizz doubled or tripled me.

It was an April storm that would have made January proud - midday temps in the mid 20s with tons of blowing and drifting snow. The only thing out of the ordinary from a true winter storm was the late sunset.

71/31 with a relative humidity of 22% at 4pm.

It has been wrong in bizarre fashion this winter. This is not the first time it was insistent on a big snow event when no other model showed it (granted, the Euro did for a run or two with this one) only to cave after many runs of deep, deep snow.

Here's what Kyle Elliott has to say about all of this: @MUweather With so much snowstorm hype returning, I encourage all my followers to NOT trust the GFS. 2-3" snowstorms in late Mar/early Apr are a rarity in south-central PA. 2-3' ones have never occurred in the 1900s or 2000s. The GFS's track record has been abysmal this winter.

And there is nothing wrong with tracking. I hope no one gives you grief...grief is being given in other subs and I don't understand why. Sure, the odds of something happening at the end of March/early April are really small...but that's not a reason to not invest in your interest with the right perspective. I wasn't expecting nearly 9" of snow on 4/6/1982 but that's exactly what happened.