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Everything posted by Itstrainingtime
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Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Thanks guys, all is well. And Brian, it was at Ridge Road. I knew it was coming but never saw it. Fog has diminished around here somewhat as well. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
So I was reading these posts before my wife and I went out this evening...we were driving up 743 towards Elizabethtown and it got to the point where I couldn't see. Got to a spot where the road makes a sharp left turn...well, we didn't. Slid right on off the road. All is well, but we were shaken for a few minutes. Yeah - it was bad out. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It's worked well for many, many years. Sometimes you have to know your climate in relation to the players on the field. And all costs, ignore snow maps. They'll let you down ALMOST every time. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I'm with you buddy...I think we average somewhere north of 300"/winter just based off snow maps...and that includes the almighty ECMWF... -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Dews are low enough for temps to drop slightly at the onset of precip. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Looks like a lot of areas are near the critical point right now: -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It's 35 and just cloudy here. That sucks. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
What an awful cutoff across Lanco... I had to say it. That there is gonna be the "Marysville Mauler" I claim naming rights. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Thanks Eskimo Joe. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I'm telling people 30" - 45" this winter. We'll see... -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Lot of truth in your words. One thing about weather is there are no absolutes until it's actually happening. I've been burned a few too many times thinking something was definitely going to happen only to end up looking bad. This is a very humbling hobby. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Poor Jon... It might be too much snow. We'll see... -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I'm liking early next week for wintry precip... My personal rule of thumb is anytime a primary goes west I set my bar for 2". There have been storms over the years that have brought me more than that, but most times models depict higher amounts than what we end up with. Happened more than once last year...changeover (from all snow) consistently happens sooner than forecast. And 9 times out of 10, 2" is pretty much the max. I'm speaking for my area...Jon, you might be looking at a solid 3". -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I believe CTP posted a snow map on Twitter that showed that the accumulating snow stopped right at MDT. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I agree, but my point was you typically have more snow seasonally than I do. Going into last night's "event" I was running a little ahead of you for the season. That's been fixed now. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I'm going to go with 1". Sounds like it might have been a bit more given what @anotherman and a few others around me measured. With 1", I'm now at 3.3" for the season. Which makes sense as you are the local snow magnet! -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Correct! I was honestly expecting to see a little more here than at home, especially with elevation. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yeah...I probably eyeballed it a little low. If I don't actually measure I have a tough time estimating snowfall that is around 1". I easily had an inch on my car. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I didn't measure this morning but it seemed like close to 1" here in Maytown...probably a little less than that. Looks nice out though! -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I think it's a pretty safe bet something white falls here later...just not sure about ground truth. Edit: rain/snow mix here now and 36. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I'll take less snow with a layer of ice. It's called preserving the 'pack! -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It certainly looks like I could be wrong with my thought process yesterday. A lot of guidance is suddenly painting advisory criteria snows well south and east of me...I didn't see that coming. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
As you and @MAG5035 have pointed out, the pattern is at the very least looking less hostile than it has recently. We're going to need some luck with timing of various features but we can see how things could come together to bring us some fun. At a 7 day lead that's all we're looking for. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Worst part of it is we're going from cold and wet to warmer and wet...not the progression we want right now. Long way to go though... -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I've been following/tracking this weekend and haven't said much mainly because these setups do not enthuse me...we don't usually do well down this way with this type of situation. Can we get accumulating snow? Absolutely. Experience over many years tells me to be leery. However, I'm speaking specifically for MY location...I'd feel much better about snow chances closer to the I-81 corridor. I hate cold chasing precip.