Itstrainingtime

Only a 25 degree difference between International Falls and Tallahassee...that's crazy!

@daxx @Bubbler86@MAG5035 If we're rooting for the northern stream vort to deliver, do we want the southern stream to be squashed as much as possible? I'm trying to figure out how we can get the northern stream to develop/redevelop to it's maximum potential. I would think that if the southern vort is quicker/sheared/farther south, the northern stream could dig better?

I'm virtually tech illiterate. I found it in seconds by Googling "NWS State College Twitter" and scrolled down their twitter feed a bit until I found it. That's the best that I can do! (and I hope that helps!)

Keep in mind that at least some of that in part is due to a lack of "normal fluctuations" between our daily high/low. (Instead of having a "normal" split of say 37/20, we've had our share of days at 42/36 for example) Bottom line...we've had a few very warm days but we've also had MANY well above normal low temps.

This is from CTP from this past weekend. Really illustrates the lack of cold this month. 20 of the first 25 days in January were AN.

100% agree with this. Just because we're in a bad place doesn't mean we'll end there. Would not surprise me in the least to end the season with a "bang."

I haven't worn a coat since I was a kid living at home. I have a light jacket (windbreaker kind of deal) and a couple of sweatshirts. Right now we're (LNS) sitting in 7th place all-time for January warmth. As you and others have pointed out we've had very warm days in January and February in recent years and this year is no exception - what is standing out to me this winter is the complete lack of very cold nights. Without looking I'd say we've only had a few nights in the teens and probably none of them below 15. Lack of snow cover certainly plays a part in that...

Hold on that...I just checked with my cousin in Seattle. I think the most discouraging thing this morning is that we MIGHT be looking at a 7-10 day stretch of relatively dry weather.

How many days in a row can the sky look exactly the same as the day before?

That sort of matches the 12z Euro today.

Horst weighs in on the weekend: (NOAA is scheduling a dropsonde this evening) "This data will aid initialization of forecast models...and hopefully increase confidence in weekend storm details along the East coast. The current pattern bias favors a light rain-snow mix in the low lands and big cities, but some snow in the mountains. Stay tuned!" #RemainCalm

Yes. We need everything to align perfectly to have a chance this weekend...at least for next weekend the setup looks more workable.

100% correct, that's what I've been saying. And it could still happen. Tons of volatility out there...

No one in this thread is going full meltdown or anything close to it. My response to yours regarding the 12z goofus raining on the Atlantic waters was to SUPPORT what you said about models losing storms at range. That's why I quoted your post in my response... I think that there are plenty of level heads posting here today.

I was going to post for you but thought better of it. Turns out you posted exactly what I would have said! (that you would say) "If Brian isn't posting there's a damn good reason for it." (nothing to see here, move along...)

The "goofus" at 12z is raining on the Atlantic waters and not much else.

True...it's not dead yet.

Really feel like this is either a 4"+ or nothing at all type of deal. We're not going to snow much less accumulate unless we get under some heavy QPF.

Popping in from Lancaster county just to say that I think every word of this post is spot on. Even out this way I have what I call "hope but next to zero expectation." Way too many things argue against this working for us...but there's just enough intrigue with it being a potential coastal to keep tracking.

That seems to be time when the players are progged to be aligned for our best opportunity. I'm genuinely interested in the period beginning in about 10 days. Yeah...I know.

Understood. I wasn't refuting his comment, just saying that as depicted that would not work for us.

We need that LP to be stronger than that...don't we? I'm thinking we need a deep system to create a favorable dynamic.

While I think the chances for us to see snow this weekend is minuscule, it would at least be nice to have SOMETHING to track. Even if delivered the goods to our mountain friends it would be fun to have something ride up the coast... ...on the other hand, if it rained here from a coastal storm taking a perfect track at this time of year I might not find it so entertaining...

This is what has been messing with my head now for some time. It has been nice - my wife and I were out on the local river trail yesterday and it was packed. It felt really good to be outside in a light sweatshirt. BUT... If beggars could be choosy I wish it was nice for walking like in...April. Or May. As nice as it was, as fun as it was...I kept thinking about how with each day we're marching through peak climo for wintry weather and well...it isn't exactly wintry.