Itstrainingtime

We just took it on the backside but it wasn't snow... Horst said yesterday that Bradford would be the place to be.

The optimist says that good snow isn't far away from my house. The pessimist says that it keeps getting farther away from my house.

Watch the Euro go even further west now.

Looks like this actually came south from the 0z run?

You know, if every model available was showing a blizzard except for the Ukie I'd be very uneasy. I'm pretty sure there were a couple of instances where it was out on it's own and ended up being right. (meaning it screwed us) Now when we kneel at the Ukmet throne it will banish us to fetch our umbrellas.

February will be rocking!

No..."we" weren't talking about it. I was. And i admit it. I got sucked into Horst's call which was "4-7 days of wintry weather in January". I was the one that pooped on the parade...

I see both points here...while it's a great thing to be optimistic and and understand that there's a lot that can happen 4 days out, from a scientific point it's just not a good set up at all for a snowstorm. Many really good mets beyond Eric Horst have said that on here for the past several days. So while it's fine to hold out hope and perhaps pull off something really good...smart odds are on this being primarily a rainer.

A big heck yes to every word of this. I'm fine with some snow and then a wintry mix...just please not hours of heavy rain and temps in the 40s.

Oh wow, didn't know that. Juicy!

Horst just issued a new 7 day forecast and man is beating the heavy rain drum for Saturday night...

Yep...though the Ukie is interesting enough to keep some hope alive. It's still early in the game as well.

Read in the NYC forum that the Deep Thunder model supports the Ukie in burying PA - BOS in snow. Love to get the Euro on board next. (It was a red tagger that said it)

The NAM goes out that far? I thought it only went to hour 84...

Yes - I believe a lot of us will end up disappointed this weekend if expecting big snows. However, it's just a matter of time until the block establishes itself and the real fun begins. There are going to be a lot of pretty model graphics with some big numbers on them in the coming weeks...

Bingo...

Didn't the Euro depict a trailing wave today at 12z?

Horst: Monday, January 14, 2019: The second half of January may be a wild ride, both in terms of storms and temperatures. While generally colder than recent weeks, I can still see a mild day every now and then...thus, making precipitation type a tricky matter as a parade of storms move by. I expect we'll see a system of import pass by here every 3 or 4 days--this will make for lots of heavy lifting for meteorologists as there could be up to four storm threats before month's end. Short term, Monday through Thursday morning will be quiet with seasonable temperatures and no precipitation. Then comes system #1 (a fast-moving clipper) on Thursday afternoon and night with a 6- to 10-hour period of snow changing to wintry mix...ending as drizzle. South of the Turnpike this type of system typically yields a coating to an inch or two, whereas central PA and the mountains could get 2 to 4 inches. Of course, those are "typical numbers" for a system like this--check back here Tuesday for me to issue my actual forecast for Thursday night's clipper system. A shallow shot of cold air will slice in on Friday, behind the exiting clipper. Meanwhile storm #2 will be gathering in Texarkana...and this system will race our way with abundant Gulf moisture in tow. Precip should arrive here (as snow) Saturday afternoon, however, a change to wintry mix or perhaps even rain seems more likely than not Saturday night into Sunday morning. Of course, the storm is still 5+ days away...and it's much too early to lock in the details. But with very little downstream blocking, I expect the shallow cold air will retreat from southern PA and, thus, the inland track with a changeover is the more likely outcome. (Snow lovers can hold out hope of a more eastern/colder track for a couple more days--the critical disturbance won't even come into the US west coast until Thursday AM.) Another possibility...is the storm will begin as snow, then change to rain Saturday night, then end as a period of snow midday Sunday, as Arctic air gets drawn into the back end of the exiting storm. Realistically, however, it will be Thursday until this storm can be dialed in--check back then! Beyond that, a windy/cold Monday will follow...and next Monday night could be the coldest of the year so far if high pressure builds in over fresh snow cover. But again, without downstream blocking to hold in the cold air, milder air will return our way just as storm #3 approaches sometime in the Wednesday PM to Friday PM time frame. We're now talking 10 days in the future--so this can all change--but I can see this becoming another changeover storm for the Lancaster area. Summing: I rather storm period is developing with above-average precipitation likely for the second half of January. But if you want all snow from these next three storms, then move to Bradford PA...because here in Lancaster all three systems may involved a changeover. This will make for challenging forecasts...and sleep deprivation...for this guy! (grin)

Yeah...I like me some Westbrook. I usually go to Philly each year when they're in town to watch him play. Back to the weather now.

You'll have so much snow up there the tubes are going to get buried. It's the 1st and 3rd teams on that list that are particularly disturbing...

Folks...on behalf of the really good people from the Commonwealth of PA, please accept my apologies for the intruder Snowwhateverheis5921. Thing is, I don't think I've ever seen him post up in our forum. #trollingthecrapoutofyou.

You have been much more positive than you were a few years ago. I give you props for that. Doesn't mean I like your taste in sports teams though...

Yes they do but there's a big disparity between Lancaster county and the PA/NY border. That's my point - I don't think this will be evenly distributed or even close to it. I've seen nothing to suggest it will.

I don't honestly know if that's possible. If you get that amount I'm getting little or no snow most likely. If I get that amount you're going over 1' with ease.