I'm liking early next week for wintry precip...
My personal rule of thumb is anytime a primary goes west I set my bar for 2". There have been storms over the years that have brought me more than that, but most times models depict higher amounts than what we end up with. Happened more than once last year...changeover (from all snow) consistently happens sooner than forecast. And 9 times out of 10, 2" is pretty much the max.
I'm speaking for my area...Jon, you might be looking at a solid 3".