Itstrainingtime

I will be going, it's just a matter of when. Stunning scenery, plenty of things to do outdoors and then well, there's the snow. A lot of it. Back in December they were under a Winter Weather Advisory for 1 - 2' of snow. Gotta earn a warning in the Sierra!

If that happens I might finally pull the trigger and book a room at the lodge in Mammoth Lakes, CA. 700" of snow last year with continuous cover for 250+ days in town...I'm getting the itch.

8.7" season total for me to this point. Surprised that HBG is that far behind me.

I'm a lot like @CarlislePaWx, give me enough snow to cover the grass, bury it in ice and let it ride in the cold.

Bingo on all accounts.

For the love of God... Just overheard a conversation on the other side of the office. Dude is telling a couple of coworkers that we're getting 5-8" of snow Saturday. One of the women asks the dude where he gets his weather info, to which he replies "S&S Stormchasing on Facebook...those guys seem to be the best." Ugh. I marched my fat a** right on over and set 'em straight.

One thing working in our favor (hopefully) is a very cold night tomorrow night which should set the stage for instant stickage for whatever falls.

Yes. As I said last night I really don't think we see much more than 1". It wouldn't totally surprise me if we didn't reach that...

Hmm...I feel like the NAM's "wheelhouse" is big, juicy lows coming up the coast. (Jan '16) Certainly could be right for this weekend but I really pay attention to it during our big dog events. It's usually the first to sniff out north trends as well as high QPF.

I really don't have a good answer for that... SO, it's going to get very windy later today. @canderson hopefully HBG comes through this unscathed.

Your posts got deleted in that thread...

We just need opportunities, which the GFS has plenty of. One of 'em is bound to break right for us. At the very least we'll be tracking...

If I could do it all over again (and I said earlier today that I'm not) I'd go 1-3"...and I really think 3" is a stretch.

I'm going to the Flyers game tomorrow night. It is ALWAYS windy in south Philly. This means I can expect hurricane force gusts traversing the parking lots to the building. Thanks.

Was the map you were looking at the one that includes sleet? I saw output from the NAM depicting 1.5 - 2" of pure sleet. That would make a huge difference in the actual snow accumulation...

Yep. Actually, everything you said was spot on. We need to get it cold, and that is coming. After that I have a feeling that something is going to pop at a <7 day lead. Progressive patterns will lead us to that outcome. WGAL's winter outlook had 2 components that are looking pretty solid right now - a lot of mixed storms and no huge storms this winter. So far it looks to play out that way.

The most alarming thing about most of @Blizzard of 93's snow maps he posted is where the southern cutoff occurs. You never want to be on the southern fringe...and we are. I'll go down swinging with my 2-4" call.

Can't agree with you on this one Jon. Your age, knowledge and record keeping gives you an advantage over some.

If you look back through the past few threads we've been very erratic posters. There are times (I'm talking recently) where there isn't a single post for 24 hours and then we'll rip off 2-3 pages in 8 hours. While snow talk contributes to that, it isn't all of it. We were pretty active over the weekend talking about the warmth. I'm sure some of the quiet right now is watching everything get progressively worse for the weekend...it's disheartening even if it should have been expected to some degree.

It's also drier. A bad combo if we want snow.

Come on up! We're a hospitable bunch in the Garden Spot. And, we just opened up a new Cartoon Network hotel.

Totally agree. And coming off last week's little gem in a godawful pattern we'd be in a great spot going forward. I don't read DT either.

Yep...it means something for snow amounts, but it means everything for the duration of frozen.

This...is so VERY true. I argued this point vehemently in here last year... Having said that, this is an impressive CAD setup with a big boy high to funnel in the cold, at least at the surface. But like you I'm extremely hesitant to get too wrapped up in some of the snow amounts being spit out right now. My guess is that in the coming days we'll see the snow maps start to back off. (and to some extent they already have) To be perfectly clear - I DO think this will be a legit winter storm with significant amounts of frozen precipitation here in the Suskie Valley. I also believe that something on the order of 2" -4" before a changeover is more likely than some of the 6"+ amounts we've seen on some of the maps. One thing I don't like for those of us in the southern tier is that the heaviest axis of precip keeps moving north on the models. As you said, we need good rates to overcome the warming.

It's been feast or famine out west...Mammoth Mountain in the Sierra had nearly 700" last winter, so far for this January they've had an inch.