Itstrainingtime

Since we have nothing to talk about other than home heating ideas, how do we feel about realistic chances for snow before we call this godawful season finished once and for all? For my yard I'm going to guess I have a 25% chance of measurable snow, and a 10% chance of more than 3". Other guesses?

Who hacked Blizz's account?

I recently went 2 weeks with nothing running.

I have gas heat. Like I said earlier it's never once been below 61 this winter. You guys are acting like I live in an igloo.

Maytown had the heat on for the 8th night all winter last night.

Deep, deep winter in Foxville, MD.

Wow...20 on the nose when I left home this morning.

You know things are bleak when you wake up early and discover there hasn't been a single post in any of the mid-Atlantic threads for nearly 5 hours.

Yep, we'll get a solid -NAO going just in time for supercells, wedges and bow echos. Just great...

The reality of that is slowly sinking in... ...then again, it's snowing on the Outer Banks right now, so there's that.

Bingo

And that's all because of how transient the pattern has been. If it's not perfectly timed, forget about it. SE crew is benefiting from that timing today. Nut's image above looks pretty good...it just has no staying power. In one day, out the next...

For southern tier county peeps, this morning has that retro 70s look...filtered sunshine through high cirrus with mid level clouds to the south. Almost looks like there might be a southern snowstorm. I saw this sky all too frequently in the 70s and early 80s. Back then all I could do was to try and will it north...never worked out, lol

It is forced...though I can't remember the last time I posted a snow map. Hey, my daughter is the skier of my family and so I rely on her feedback, but she swears that Roundtop does grooming better than even some of the "big boys" in the Poconos.

Not sure if this is all of it, but Roundtop will make as much as 6"-8" of snow on a very good night. That means no wind or a slight breeze with a W-NW component. That snow is beat down incessantly by the cats running up and down the mountain overnight. That process continues night after night, conditions permitting so that it's essentially forming a glacier. To illustrate better - during a really good week of snowmaking when they can blow 24/7 they might make 50-60" of snow on select trails. When all is said and finished, that becomes a 15"-20" base. But that 15"-20" base is nothing like snow cover in our yards, it is packed and packed and packed until it's frozen solid. Then the groom puts nice veil of corduroy on top so the skier isn't sliding on ice. Also, Roundtop benefits from having the vast majority of the terrain face north - they don't lose much on a sunny, dry day. High temp/high dew/fog/rain is what kills their base. Barring that they can keep going even in the skimpiest years of falling snow.

Amazing to me the lack of snow in the Laurel Highlands and down into WV. Not often you take a trip west on the turnpike to Pittsburgh in February and see nothing but green.

Actually...yes. If some of the long range guidance is correct we're gonna get our perfect winter pattern...well into spring. BTW - I think you were the first in here to call for a crapfest winter when most of the rest of us were singing some good vibes right along with Chris Janson.

Seems like the very end of February/beginning of March offers at least some legitimate hope...

Yep - it's all about what you've become accustomed to. And sadly what we've become accustomed to this winter is mild days and and even milder nights. Normal cold suddenly feels extra-cold.

Thanks for digging that information up! In my mind I'm not going to remember this winter for the abnormally warm days, it's been the warm nights that will really stand out. Very few nights below 20 and none in the single digits. That speaks to how cloudy and damp it's been more than anything else. If we would have had a run of sunny warm days...then we'd be talking about historic instead of noteworthy.

Yep...though the Doctor hasn't made a house call on this one yet.

Parts of the Carolinas might get a decent snow later this week. Good for them!

Today is another over-performer for temps. Seems to happen very frequently.

Makes one wonder how long there was snow cover...

I guess, I've already been outvoted by both you and @daxx so I'll concede. My hangup on '82 was really about the temp and wind...21 degrees at noon in Lancaster on April 6th? 9' drifts? Regardless...good luck seeing either of those events happen again.