Itstrainingtime

Snow mixing in here now.

This is sort of how I feel about some in the NYC thread...they've been absolutely mauled many times in recent memory. I remember a storm a couple of years ago where they only got about 18"...models had them getting 24"-30". The meltdowns over 18" (I got 0") was mind=boggling to me.

I don't "follow" him, but I read his posts all the time. Tremendous amount of respect for him. He's honking loudly for the 15/81 corridor.

Snow really is possessive, isn't it? (I'm saying this to ALL of us, really) Every time I complain when I'm mixing and others are snowing, I think of you first. I know there have been MULTIPLE storms over the past 10-15 years when you got a fraction of what I got. I also think of the Pittsburgh gang as well - they haven't had a double digit snowstorm in years. I've been incredibly blessed with some monster storms over the years. But tomorrow, when I'm watching others "cash" in while I'm not...it still stings. Snow has a way of making us become very selfish and possessive.

Still a chilly 100% rain down the road from you and 36.6

Gotta think you're in a very sweet spot for the big show!

It sucks. No sense saying anything other than what it is. I try and appease myself by understanding that there are storms where I get decent snow while Mag and others get cirrus. Yeah, it sounds good now, but tomorrow afternoon when I'm pinging or ZR and others are 1/4 mile vis in +SN, it doesn't feel so good then. For what it's worth, @MillvilleWxwho is a great met that posts in here from time to time, thinks that the jackpot might end up in the hills of York county between York and Harrisburg, which would seem to better scenario for us mixy folks in the SE part of the region.

Wow, just posted that it's still all rain out this way. You must have some pretty good rates.

All rain (moderate) here in the historic district. Raw day...(and very dark)

@Cashtown_Coop I still like where you're at.

GFS is usually the most suppressed, NAM is usually the most amped. Biases factored in, I still think I-81 is money.

@HorstWeather "Wednesday storm is fast, but potent...with a perfect (for snow) 1037mb high over Quebec. Temps below freezing throughout, but a period of "mix" likely (Lanco) at peak of storm (warm intrusion aloft). My "first call" is 6 - 12" (Lanco), w/ 16" likely N & W of Harrisburg." "The upper-level energy for the Wednesday storm is just coming into norCal today...so the storm track in the Mid-Atlantic is subject to shift a bit. Right now, the heaviest in PA looks to be near Blue Mountain and I-81 to I-87 to Poconos...with a bullseye of 16"+ possible."

Geez, the 12k NAM spits out 4" of snow in southern Lanco and 24" across the northern part of the county...

Fair enough. I don't remember the 2/5 storm trending north. I vividly remember the storm in December coming north though - 48 hours out we were looking at 4" at most.

I think Nut's approach is especially prudent at this point. High hopes, realistic expectations.

Sometimes...certainly not the case in the winter of 2009-10 though. Ask NYC about confluence that winter. The storm on 2/5/2010 dropped over 2' in central Jersey and never made it to the metro area. It hit a brick wall and just stopped. They're still waiting for that storm to arrive.

Same!

Thrilled to have you sharing your thoughts and analysis Matt. Man, I guess it's the year we've been dealing with, but I'm weenie-ing out excessively tonight. If we ever needed this type of diversion, this is the time.

Welcome to the week of pissed off, non- understanding wives. My wife wanted to know what was wrong while I was watching the GFS come in...

Yes. Also, with large east coast storms the GFS is usually the most progressive/strung out/east of most models. I don't like that it's on the western edge of the envelope. (Though the operational run was way left of the mean)

For those interested, Horst doesn't tweet as much as he did when he was weather director at MU. He updated an hour or so ago saying he expects a jackpot of 16" somewhere in our area. Of course, mentions taint in York and Lancaster with all snow north and west of Harrisburg.

GFS ensemble mean looks very good!

I often forget that. I finished last season with 10.2". I had a storm that dropped 6" here that largely missed your area.

Exactly, and on all accounts. Those from Harrisburg north and west didn't notice this, but for us...it's obvious. Equally obvious, it's 1 run from 1 model, so there's that. But the EPS was moving north as well.

No, I meant Wednesday's storm. For my area, this was a step back. Not totally unexpected, but there's far more mixing for our area.