Itstrainingtime

Maybe. But everything is shifting south in response to the confluence. If that eases up, we're okay. Right now, it gets stronger each run.

That's what I was afraid of. Also, the WAA is getting less and less on each run. (for us)

"the Euro is dangerously close to missing the capture and escaping" (PSUHoffman)

18z Euro is further south per MA forum.

35.2" is your target.

This post made my day.

I felt much more comfortable 24 hours ago than I do now.

This is what's been on my mind the past few hours. I honestly think it's going to be a bomb or a bust. There could be a middle ground, but I have a feeling it's going to be a few inches or a crap ton here.

Sort of...if the coastal misses completely, the Ukie solution is absolutely valid. Even using the Euro, I don't think we see 6" from the WAA part of the event. If the coastal misses, I think 2-4" is a better call east of the river. Let's hope this is a moot point.

Agreed. I think the Ensembles are leaning SW due to the WAA - most models show only a couple/few inches for me from that, while areas down your way and a bit SW of you might see double that. I need the coastal to produce.

Euro OP threw out some crazy QPF totals over SE PA...ensemble mean suggests a slight, overall reduction from 0z. On the OP, I was on the western fringe of the best QPF. On the mean, I'm on the NE edge of the 6" line.

Welp Nut...the jackpot moved well SE from 12z... ...and on this run, it targets ME and YOU. Can we hold it?

Understood. Definite risk.

It is, and you and I get clobbered with the CCB. We're running out of margin, however.

Eh, she's still close to the coast, but the next frames will tell the story...

I don't like what I'm seeing with the coastal...further south and east a bit to me.

MAG, I got the CMC and GEFS mixed up. Sorry about that!

It shifted the higher probs significantly south.

It seemed for years that the Euro and Ukie were lock-step with each other, and if one deviated, the other followed immediately on the next run. The past year or two the Ukie has seemed more erratic - hoping that is the case here. But man, can you ever see the confluence draining out of NE on the Ukie....

I'll use the most uttered phrase on these boards now because this time I really believe it - this is a HUGE Euro run upcoming at 1pm.

From what I could see, the only snow we get at all from the Ukie is the WAA. To Brian's (daxx) point earlier, to me it looks like the coastal forms and escapes due east. We get nothing from that. PSU is harping suppression issues once again.

Ukie is south. Like WAY south. Like it's a VA special. Most in here get very little, border areas might see several inches on the Uncle verbatim. Hopefully, this is one time that the Euro does NOT follow the Ukie's lead... It's hard for me to decipher Ukie panels. Perhaps the above isn't totally accurate, but I think I see the gist of it.

I honestly don't know. I only knew about them from this forum. I have zero social media accounts other than Linkedin and have no intention of ever having any.

S&S Stormchasers. The creators of social media hysteria with snow maps.

The real issue is ignorance. And I don't use that word in a mean-spirited way. I know enough about weather to ignore snow maps. Honestly, I don't really spend time looking at them much at all. That's my choice, I know that many love them, and that is great too! The problem, bigger scale, is when a map is posted and put out there for people that know nothing about the weather. They see an outlandish map, and automatically, it becomes a forecast. That's the problem. It's not in this forum, it's with the public at large. (and how they're perceived)