Itstrainingtime

That's HM as in Henry Margusity. The ultimate met weenie. Man, I miss his entertaining video rants...

Paranoia isn't a bad thing. There's a reason why huge events don't happen that often. It's easier to fail than to win. People talk about PSUHoffman always looking for what can go wrong, but very often...something goes wrong. I think you made a very valid point and it needs to at least be considered as a possibility. I am always on the taint train because both history and my climo suggest that I taint far more often than what models originally depict. And further...when models do depict taint, it almost always advances further north and west than depicted.

Most on the list were HUGE hits, including #2 and #3. It was #1 that was the fail.

There was talk yesterday about the analogs for this potential event. Interestingly, the #1 analog was 2000 = a complete whiff east.

No mixing in '96 However, the primary died WELL south of where this one is progged. I don't think we're going to mix because of the coastal's position on the coast, I think we'll mix because of the north advancement of the primary. Once the coastal takes over, we'll go back to snow. '93 was 6 hours of nothing but sleet for me during the midday hours on Saturday. That was a super-tucked bomb, though.

Very good news. I still believe it's prudent for you and me to expect some taint before the coastal takes over completely - that's how we roll with a dying primary in OH.

Good morning! Slow getting up last night after watching the Euro run...holy crap! At any rate, to finish this post, Horst thinks this is the classic storm for a Lanco Snow -mix - snow. Details in the next 24 hours. As excited as I was to see the Euro, my first thought was "this is fantastic...but it needs to stop moving north NOW."

Euro

Euro is a shellacking!

It's Wednesday. There is plenty of time for him to slowly ramp up wording and amounts. I'd rather that than go big now and have to keep backpeddling. He could at least mention the possibility of a major storm, perhaps he has said that...

GFS is sending the primary towards Pittsburgh. Verbatim, the southern tier sees a LOT of mixing. QPF totals don't look especially high given the slow development and track of the coastal. It's pretty strung out.

You're the perfect one to say this at the perfect time. I've created "A Day In The Life of Central PA" threads that accurately depict comments like this. You're absolutely right, by the way. And I for one will NOT forget this over the coming days.

This! I've been saying for some time that I don't want to be near the edge, especially the southern edge. Thing is...I think there's an upside to this for our area. I'm not sure that the maps show the best case scenario. (caveat - it could also go the other way)

CCB to perfection right there. Has to be right.

The Navy model...if only...

Yep. And it's really close to Lanco. But, it's several days out and will likely (hopefully) shift.

CMC track and progression looks much better to me than what the pretty maps indicate. I thought the pretty maps would look prettier - there is also a big dry slot on the CMC over SE PA where storm total QPF is less than .50" Something to watch.

Ji mentioned it enough times for the entire board.

I agree. And even though I said that I wasn't worried about taint last night, give me a super-amped bomb and I'll take all the QPF (and some taint) that comes with it.

As an O's fan, I find this especially bizarre.

? He's not panicking. He's feeling great about where he sits right now. He offered a very early, educated guess. (Which is too early to be honest) The one that's concerned is Hoffman.

Welcome back...

Eskimo Joe (Matt)

I fear suppression. I can't shake it. Last thing I'm worrying about right now is taint, and I'm the forum's self-designated taint worry king. It worries me even more knowing that PSUhoffman is worried about suppression and he's further south than me by a fair amount. EJ thinks that the area between Rt. 30 and 66 is in line for a warning event snowfall. I'll take my WWA and like it.

That's a possible outcome, but to give particulars 5 days out is ballsy. Better to say "there's a chance of a significant winter storm" and start adding precip types in the next few days and potential amounts starting 24-48 hours out.