Itstrainingtime

Agree 100%!

No. That's why i posted that map. If I'm ever going to post a snow map, it's going to be something outlandish!

RGEM doesn't look too bad down here...(over 30" in southern Lanco)

CTP hoisted watches for the southern tier counties.

Our friends down south are laughing off the NAM. Not a wise decision IMHO.

@MAG5035 based on what you said this afternoon on how high amounts might go, is it safe to assume that the NAM is at the upper end of the envelope, potential wise?

Correct - this is his 2nd first guess. Yesterday, nearly the entire SV was in his 12"+ range.

As everything trends north today, DT goes south: Can someone explain to me what happens between the 8" purple line and the 8-12" red line?

Widespread double digit amounts over the southern half of PA.

CTP was calling for 2-4" for Lanco 36 hours prior to arrival in '96. I measured 30.5" 3 days later.

GFS is 1-1.5" of QPF, all snow for us...

Hard to tell exactly, but it looks like a general 10-15" with lolli's on the ICON. Northern NJ gets buried...looks in excess of 2'?

MAG, that's a great call - thank you for your thoughts, as always.

Thank you! Glad I wasn't the only one on that train. @Mshaffer526 you were watching this too! If this can keep going the other way (less confluence) our potential prize goes up...

I'll be the first to throw the challenge flag...

I gained about .5" of QPF from the 0z run. Verbatim...it's about 7" of snow for me. Last night's run was barely over 1".

Look at how that hole over NE PA really eroded on the most recent run. That is what I wanted to see.

To me, what I took from the Euro was 1) confluence eased off somewhat, and 2) the precip shield has a better east-west alignment today. Positives..

I just want that perturbation coming SE out of New England to relax and retreat. We need that to happen to end up really happy...

It is indeed me...2019 in Washington DC at the international HR conference. I started every day there with a big a** bowl of Cap'n Crunch!

I've never once had them.

Fair enough. I'm not here to cast doom and gloom. I've been going on 3 hours sleep all week solely to stay up for the Euro, hoping and hoping that I see something that I like. The past 2 days I haven't seen that. I'm not here to piss on Cheerios, I'm here because I have a passion for weather in general, snow in particular, and I love to read and share. Funny, by nature I'm known as an extremely positive/optimistic person, but, and this is a big but...I do not roll with blinders on. I will not ignore negative things and pretend they don't exist. I tend to be the first, or one of the first, to throw the challenge flag in this thread. I've been an ardent follower of the weather since 1972. I've learned a LOT over the years, received a 104% final grade on Meteo in school, and would have pursued my met degree in college if life wouldn't have thrown me a curve ball years ago. You've said this yourself - it's easy to be negative because more often than not, we fail when it comes to snow. If i downplay and you hype every potential event, I'll be right more than you. We know this, but that is NOT my intent. I try and share the why. And there are times when my "why" is off base even though I end up being "right" but the bottom line is this - I'm really just trying to be objective. Sometimes I take it too far, yes. But look...I want it to snow. Like really, really bad. And I'm looking for signs that this thing is going to come back.

To be fair, I'm not selling. I'm trying to have a balanced discussion including hype, logic, reason, and everything in between. I'm not rooting against this nor do I hope that I'm right in what I'm thinking right now. I'm here for one reason, it's not to play poo poo or to be a pain in the arse. But things have happened, are happening, and I'm offering a counterpoint. I will try and post actual weather updates going forward and leave my thoughts and opinions out of here.

Anyone want a storm update? The energy for our SUN/MON storm is now coming thru CA & NV with snow & rain. Low pressure will develop over OK on Saturday and track to OH on Sunday...then re-develop off the VA coast Sunday PM into Monday. This type of "jump storm" is very complex... ...and they are known to give forecasters (and snow lovers) fits. #bustpotential That said, if things play out just right...then snowfall would exceed our December storm. But given the complexity of the playing field, it would be imprudent to be talking "numbers" today... #nohype Saturday AM is the right time to make the call on snowfall. Check back. Timing: Light snow is likely Sunday afternoon w/ the steadiest snow (or mix) late Sunday night into Monday...tapering off by Tuesday AM. Bust factors: Sharp northern edge, dry slot, sleet, coastal low track. Horst's thoughts.

Is the PARA replacing the current GFS?