Itstrainingtime

To be fair, I'm not selling. I'm trying to have a balanced discussion including hype, logic, reason, and everything in between. I'm not rooting against this nor do I hope that I'm right in what I'm thinking right now. I'm here for one reason, it's not to play poo poo or to be a pain in the arse. But things have happened, are happening, and I'm offering a counterpoint. I will try and post actual weather updates going forward and leave my thoughts and opinions out of here.

Anyone want a storm update? The energy for our SUN/MON storm is now coming thru CA & NV with snow & rain. Low pressure will develop over OK on Saturday and track to OH on Sunday...then re-develop off the VA coast Sunday PM into Monday. This type of "jump storm" is very complex... ...and they are known to give forecasters (and snow lovers) fits. #bustpotential That said, if things play out just right...then snowfall would exceed our December storm. But given the complexity of the playing field, it would be imprudent to be talking "numbers" today... #nohype Saturday AM is the right time to make the call on snowfall. Check back. Timing: Light snow is likely Sunday afternoon w/ the steadiest snow (or mix) late Sunday night into Monday...tapering off by Tuesday AM. Bust factors: Sharp northern edge, dry slot, sleet, coastal low track. Horst's thoughts.

Is the PARA replacing the current GFS?

I maintain that confluence can erode that WAA - the confluence has been trending stronger, not weakening. Your point in general about the differences in each setup and things change over time is well noted and prudent.

This. I laid out an idea going into last Monday about how I could see a path to us getting nothing this week. We ended up getting pretty much nothing. I still fear the WAA weakens before reaching us, the coastal whiffs east, and we're looking at little ground truth come early next week. For those west of say I-83 I think the WAA delivers a decent thump.

How much of that is from the WAA vs. the coastal?

Talk about not knowing what to think. The plot thickens...

We shall see. I hope you are right!

I don't. I'm not sure how those of us this far north and east can feel good about it at all - look at what just happened several days ago. That is some serious confluence draining SE out of New England. Not saying we don't thump, but I'm not putting money on it happening.

12z: NAM: Hope for the front thump ICON: We hug tight and don't let go RGEM: South of 6z, little above the M/D line

I read one met's opinion this morning that he believes the Euro is out to lunch with how it's handling the energy and it will correct itself and end up hitting us. Next met came along and said exactly what you did - the Euro is simply handling/responding to the pattern...shred and weaken, shred and weaken...

I don't think this setup is anything like Boxing Day... ...other than perhaps the final result.

If the Euro was the only model showing a snowstorm, it would cave to the rest. When it's the only model not showing a snowstorm, all other guidance moves towards it. Uncanny...

It's gone south 4 runs in a row.

It's really south it looks.

Really glad the Ukie came back north. Let's see what the European is cooking.

I love the Germans.

I mean, I love that sub. They have a great blend of knowledge and entertainment. Some tremendous people down there, but they get really possessive of their home turf. NAM is north. Let's keep hope alive.

I've argued that for years. Anyway, I just went into their banter thread and let them know nicely that we're a good bunch of guys. (which i mean sincerely)

Hey everyone, Anotherman is NOT a troll. He's a good poster in our thread. We have one troll who was in here back in December and I came in asked him to leave you alone. He didn't. Thing is, he's a super troll because he never posts in his home thread. I also appreciated the fact that many of you thanked me for coming in here and pulling the clown out. We have a really good thread with some great people. I've been around for a long time and I will tell you that almost every one of us comes to this sub because: 1) What happens down here first usually affects us next 2) You are an amazing group of contributors. Tons of knowledge and a lot of entertainment to boot. I spend time every day reading and enjoying the disco and banter. Some of you seem happy that PA might get shutout - I get it, snow can make us very possessive. I'll also add that the vast majority of us want you to have a good storm. We don't wish ill on others like some do. I just wanted to share this in light of what happened earlier. We really are good people...just like you all are. Sincerely wishing you a great storm! - Mike

There are a couple down there making fun of us. Noted.

With each push south it's also getting weaker. We need the confluence to ease and hope for some ticks north.

Maybe. But everything is shifting south in response to the confluence. If that eases up, we're okay. Right now, it gets stronger each run.

That's what I was afraid of. Also, the WAA is getting less and less on each run. (for us)

"the Euro is dangerously close to missing the capture and escaping" (PSUHoffman)