Itstrainingtime

It certainly looks like my fear of suppression for tonight will end up being unfounded. I'll gladly and publicly admit I was wrong.

Horst: Wednesday Update: A weak system will slide by to our south tonight w/ intermittent snow btwn 8pm - 8am. Temps aloft are good for making dendrites, so it may do well, despite other limitations. 2 - 4" is a good bet along the Rt-30 corridor...perhaps up to 5" on some SoLanco hills.

In between Zwyts and Deck Pic he was "Westminster Deathband" which I loved as well.

You have the best name on the entire board - hands down. Resume weather talk...

I mean...the Route 30 bypass opened when I was 5...so I guess...

By default, sure. I've been in Lanco for 56 years, so I've seen enough to blame me for anything.

Interesting. I wonder if I changed to rain being further south? The only memorable weather event for me between 1979 and 1993 was the 2/12/1983 blizzard. We had a nice snowstorm in 1987 but it was a heavy snow with no wind that melted in 2 days. 1983...I had 5" of snow between 4pm and 5pm at the height of the storm with multiple lightning flashes and loud thunder. It was a fairly progressive storm that I still got 24.5" from. Man, if we only would have had a block...

I was born in 1965 - so I basically grew up in the 70s. Parents would often tell me during my childhood as a snow lover how much things changed shortly after I was born. The 70s were not kind - I watched with despair as the Virginas and Carolinas kept getting smoked while I was looking south through filtered sun.

I have an average of 6" in protected areas that don't get much or any sun. Most of my backyard is fully exposed and it's nothing but a few small areas.

I'm jealous - my backyard is 75% bare ground.

Mid to late March as I recall - it wasn't the magnitude of the winter of '94, which I had snow cover for 77 consecutive days. (that's not a typo) I hate sleet when it's falling but I appreciate it so much days later when I'm looking at a white instead of green landscape.

2007...I had 4" of sleet. That was pretty epic.

I think that snow hole is a result of downsloping from Blue Mountain just to our north and west, and then the upslope of the far eastern Lanco/western Chesco high hills just to our east. It's very annoying.

I'm definitely in the camp that many more have come north. Off the top of my head, 75% is probably safe - it might be higher than that. I got tired of saying last year how temps were almost without exception higher than modeled. It happens all the time. I'm saying that as a generalization, not specific to modeled arctic air days out. However, I also agree that a lot of modeled arctic air has modified before it reaches us - January 2018 is a notable exception to that. To @Jns2183 point, more times than not it finds ways not to snow than it does for it to snow. We've done remarkably well this winter for a Nina but there have still been several misses that models were showing snow for our area that either didn't come to fruition or we ended up with far less than thought.

Sorry - it looked like it was headed west for sure ON THAT RUN, as depicted. I'm sorry that I wasn't clear on that part. My bad. The whole real cold thing before it snows - I somewhat agree with that. But, '96 I was SN+ for hours sitting on 12 degrees. It happened with one of the big boys over the past 10-15 years as well, but in general...too much cold is a bad thing.

That's just it - way too early to say where this might be headed. Get us a gorilla and I'll start throwing bananas.

Verbatim, the upcoming cold push is keeping it from snowing (much) the next few days. After that, the cold push charges out so fast it again keeps it from snowing. (much) That high is hauling east on the Euro and we are flooded with warm air. I thought at first that we'd have a pretty good CAD setup and a decent amount of frozen, but no...

It looks like it's headed west for sure - fun to track if it happens.

Euro doesn't look good for Thursday and Friday - south and dry.

I'm less than an amateur - admittedly, beyond looking at models faithfully, I then resort to my climo and intuition. To me, several days ago when the maps were really pretty for the Wednesday PM - Friday deal, my concern was the precip would be suppressed and weaker simply because we didn't have a strong vort attacking it. If something is weak and coming in waves, it's much easier for the cold press to shred, weaken, suppress. And I was only throwing out a question/caution because I've seen it happen a "few" times over the years. Doesn't mean it won't snow, I was just expressing/asking something that looked like a red flag to me. I was convinced that this past Sunday would be far less than the 4-7" that models and others were painting. I ended up with less than 2" of slop. I was convinced a couple of weeks ago that a storm that was modeled and forecasted to give me 3-5" would bust, and I got nada. Honestly, Nut, you've said this many times - in truth, it's easy to say it won't snow because history is definitely on the side of those who say it won't, but I really try to limit my questions/concerns to situations that warrant them. That usually works out really well for me. But again - it's not really super scientific - it's more of an understanding of history, climo, and how systems have interacted with each other in the past. This site is a GREAT place to learn. I have my met textbooks on my bookshelf that I still read, but that info pales to what one can learn here. I enjoy it, guys.

That's exactly what I had in between the rain drops.

I think round #2 has more upside as well.

Yes, we will. I just got caught up looking at the overnight/early morning guidance and...meh. Things seem to be settling pretty far south, but more importantly, pretty weak. And maybe the weak part is what's translating to the south part, but I don't know.

No snow, no ice, no rain, no...nothing from last night's storm. On to the next one!

EXACTLY my fear from yesterday.