Itstrainingtime

It's about time Williamsport and environs have a good winter - you should get snow up there, and recently there have been many years it just hasn't happened. I remember as a kid taking trips up 44 North above Haneyville, there always seemed to be a few feet of snow on the ground. These days, not so much. Euro made a nice move NW for Sunday. Not enough, but the jet has sharpened markedly over the past 12-24 hours to the point where some of us can entertain the possibilities for Sunday...

Yes. I remember Horst saying that historically Lancaster received 1-2 double digit snowfalls per decade. Off the top of my head, since 2000 these years had at least one: 2000 2003 2009 2010 (2) 2012 2016 2017 2018 2020 2021 I know I'm missing a couple, but right there is 11 over the past 21 years. That's an average of 1 every 2 years.

14.4" is exactly what I ended up with!

Our good friends over at Mt. Holly aren't enthused at all about Sunday (even for the coast) and here's why: Deterministic guidance over the past 24 hours has taken an eastern shift in a potential surface low track however there`s still quite a bit of spread in the ensemble guidance. I suspect over the next couple of days we`ll see this trend continue as the 250mb jet axis acts as a wall to push the developing low pressure system off shore. However its certainly within the ensemble envelope that we`ll see the low pressure system sneak back inside and towards the coast. So its worth watching for changes but likely the storm will have little impact over the region other than to bring rather cold temperatures to the region. Temps early next week will be running on the order of 10 degrees below normal with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens.

Seeing a few flurries here for the first time since 8am yesterday.

I was thinking about you earlier today. On Sunday you were telling everyone that you MIGHT get a nice advisory event for this past storm. I think you said 4-6"? And you ended up with how much, Mr. snow capital of the east? 3-6" on Sunday would be perfect. Nice appetizer before I start big game hunting next week.

Not sure there's a whole lot of upside with Sunday (next week might be a different story) but a 4-8" type of snowfall is on the table if things work out right.

And for the past hour it's been exceptionally windy!

Not entirely true - Para GFS is actually running west of us from what I can tell. We have several south, one west, and the Euro just about perfect, at least for the LSV. Not a bad place to be right now.

Cold is great for snowpack longevity but we risk suppression as well.

Final post I'll make for this storm. Looking back, if you ignore the crazy QPF amounts it was depicting, I thought the RGEM performed as well as any other model. For the days leading up to the storm it consistently showed a very heavy swath of snow over eastern PA. It moved the target from the Philly metro west over my area, and then started shifting it a bit towards the LV, but considering that many locations in the LV have exceeded 30", my lasting impression was that the RGEM had the basic idea on where the heaviest snowfall was going to occur. GFS and NAM were super jumpy, the NAM didn't catch on until 6 hours after the event started. The Euro really smoothed out the area of heaviest snow and was too high in most of the LSV, and had that crazy blip on one of the 0z runs that took almost everything to the south of PA. Ukie ended up fairly close but was swinging wildly run to run leading up to the event.

Sun has been in and out here for at least 3 hours. Snowpack is down to nearly 9" already.

No - the flow definitely suggest in and out quickly. Even with a direct hit it's likely a 6-12 hour event.

12z Euro has a SLP situated right over the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel complex at 10AM Sunday morning. Nice swath of snow in SE PA.

I'd love to get some fresh snow before the cold arrives. Keep it wintry for a while. Certainly potential exists in the day 6-7 timeframe.

Just came in from shoveling. 2 quick thoughts: This snow is a biatch to shovel There is NO wind here. Okay, the slightest of breezes...

I don't think Friday is ours. Perhaps some light mix at best, looks like mainly some rain to me. Much more intriguing is Sunday...

At some point late yesterday afternoon I seemed to pass you - I was under some really good bands like most in here from 1-3:30 or so, but I had another solid burst of SN+ in the hour before and after sunset. 2 double digit snowfalls and we're only at 2/2? Huge win! I'm at 25.4" for the season with our best snow climo ahead of us. I'm never surprised with sleet, either duration here or areal coverage. This is NOT directed at you even though I'm quoting your post, but I'm amazed how often people are shocked by this. With some exceptions of course, this happens all the time. When are people going to understand that mix moves further inland than models predict? It drives me crazy because we go through this every storm. Next storm will come along and we'll go through it all over. Again. Any snow weenie disappointed after the past few days of weather needs to have his...well, his inner-weenie examined.

Yep! To add to the compaction dialogue, I currently have 11" on the ground from my 14.4" total. Sun is peeking out and the dripping has commenced in full force.

I'll look later but I believe this was my 15th double digit snowfall since 2000. Not bad for an area that historically averaged about 1 or 2 per every 10 years.

Lots going on with work, quick update: Cloudy skies Storm total snowfall: 14.4" Looking forward to catching up later!

No snow here AND no wind to speak of. Official total so far is 12.9".

12.7" here and SN.

Just did an official measurement...11.8" storm total. Me thinks I'll reach a 1'.

So we are just about even. And my daughter was trained well.