Itstrainingtime

I'll be honest and I don't want to poo poo on the party which is why my posts have been few and far between today... Since Sunday, I have felt exceptionally good AND confident about this storm. My faith in this storm is wavering big time today for 2 reasons: overall less QPF being modeled, and more importantly, mixing issues. Someone talk me back from the precipice. First one to alleviate my fear gets a free brewskie.

I'm every bit as ugly in person as my pic suggests. This has been talked about before, we really should do this.

I'm 5 miles south of Elizabethtown - I can't tell you how many times the landscape has been whiter in Bear country and then down here in the land of the Tribe. In these situations - latitude, and to some extent longitude absolutely matter.

I want as much QPF as possible as early as possible - let's get it cranking and take our chances.

Yes, he's not afraid to go against ALL guidance...and he's usually spot on OR even he underplays the advancement of the warmth aloft. Sterling is going 6-8" in Harford and Cecil counties, hence my post that someone is going to bust.

Yes. Can't agree more - can't get good amounts of snow without the QPF to produce it.

Someone's going to bust hard in Lanco - Horst going for 2-5" south of Rt. 30 and 4-8" north...and once again, believes that a changeover will occur long before models say it will...

I shared your sentiment with my wife. Her eyes got really big and all she said was "if only." (She was thinking we're getting 1-3" of SNOW so this surprised her)

I just came from the Philly thread (this forum...not Philly weather) and Ralphie Simpson is making it sound like storm cancel. I don't think the 0z guidance looks too bad? I mean - if we're expecting 12-18" well yeah, but this should still be a 3-6", 4-8", 5-10" kind of deal. I'll take that.

Exactly! Let's discuss...the weather. That includes wind gusts on Front Street Harrisburg too.

Now let's move the southern edge a little more...southerly.

#faithintheflakes

My day has been fulfilled. I've been waiting for this post. You never let me down.

Thanks, this is exactly what I was trying to say but failed. Lousy trainer I am...

I don't think we'll miss this watching it all go south of us. However, the best forcing initially is "trending" south, at least on the models. The first burst of snow associated with the frontogenesis is actually targeting DC south. We still snow but not at the rate it will further south...initially. We end up with more as we snow longer and hopefully with less mix, but he's not completely wrong in that aspect. It's also very possible that the thumpiest of the initial thump moves back north as well.

Exactly 48 hours later...

My point and click was actually lowered just a bit from last night - again, a 3-6" snowfall with ice on top will more than satisfy me!

To my eyes on the GFS the fronto band was well south of us. It looked like we made up for it with another impulse that moved through later in the PM. If that's the case, we'll definitely need to proceed with caution as that would allow warmth aloft to move overhead by that point. We need the thump to realize the totals we're seeing on the pretty maps.

Thanks all - I was just knee-jerk reacting to the SLP placement.

People have been questioning all winter how can we get rain from a storm that is off the east coast - How in the world do we get snow from a storm over Michigan?

I can't get the NAM to load tonight, but it sounds like it's much better for Thursday

My temp has slowly backed down from 33.4 at 6pm to its current 32.2 My point and click is for 4-6" total. I'd be thrilled with that!

DC special here. Rain and 33...

Considering where we were 48 hours ago, 3-6" would be a win.

I honestly think the most realistic "expectation" right now should be 3-6". I would NEVER expect more than 6" from this setup or you will likely be disappointed. We might still not get that much - but 3-6" sounds about right for now.