Thrilled to have you sharing your thoughts and analysis Matt. Man, I guess it's the year we've been dealing with, but I'm weenie-ing out excessively tonight. If we ever needed this type of diversion, this is the time.
Yes. Also, with large east coast storms the GFS is usually the most progressive/strung out/east of most models. I don't like that it's on the western edge of the envelope. (Though the operational run was way left of the mean)
For those interested, Horst doesn't tweet as much as he did when he was weather director at MU. He updated an hour or so ago saying he expects a jackpot of 16" somewhere in our area. Of course, mentions taint in York and Lancaster with all snow north and west of Harrisburg.
Exactly, and on all accounts. Those from Harrisburg north and west didn't notice this, but for us...it's obvious.
Equally obvious, it's 1 run from 1 model, so there's that. But the EPS was moving north as well.
Yes. I'm almost convinced that I have mixing issues here in Lanco. I'm much more worried about an inland vs. suppressed scenario. As @MillvilleWx said in your thread, you have to know your climate with large east coast storms. Rarely do I not taint, especially this early in the season with sea temps above normal. Just the way we role in the Lancaster area.
Gut says that Franklin county NE to perhaps the Coal Region jackpots in our area.
You are correct, but I would be surprised if I end up with more than you. I'm fully expecting some mixing. I really believe the 15/81 corridor is going to jackpot. We'll see soon enough...
Usually it's a NAM run that is a complete miss, and often by a ridiculous amount. 6 hours later it comes back with 3.5" of QPF.
GFS is also good for a suppressed, strung-out run or 2.
How can I not remember - 42" of snow in 6 days. That's a good way to break one's seasonal snow forecast in a week's time.
While not my favorite storm, the blizzard of '96 produced 30.5" where I lived. That still ranks #1 all time for my greatest snowfall event on record.
@MAG5035 I was going to ask that very question - I read earlier today that we should really be rooting for a miss on Monday to set Wednesday up better. Thanks for answering and affirming that. I want no part of Monday if it hinders the follow up wave.
I post in here sporadically, living in Lancaster county my "home" isn't really Central PA nor is it in this sub forum. But I do like to post on weather that's moving west to east to provide insight to you good folks on what might be heading your way. I hope that's okay, but I have to ask...
Why is there a weenie tag put on almost every comment by that poster?