Itstrainingtime

Riding my 3-6"...we'll see.

Euro even drier - looks like .25" - .50" QPF through tomorrow evening.

Anyway - if we're thumping, sun angle isn't a worry. If it's light snow and 30 degrees at midday, it becomes a concern. On to the Euro...

Mount Holly's writeup also mentioned the sun angle, so it isn't just Glenn. Here's the website I use (both for meteo and other pursuits) plotting solar azimuth for basically any location on earth on any given day (but here linked to Philly): https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/usa/philadelphia. We're up to 38.7 degrees tomorrow at 12:14pm, vs Decem when our angle maxes in the upper 26 degree range. We're heading into the part of the year where the sun angle, day length delta (etc) are all rising rapidly day-to-day. I don't think it matters much for "the thump" but it matters later in the day--so it isn't just cya messaging. They're not wrong. Fun fact: 50 degrees of azimuth is about what you need for UV-B light to reach the surface, and thus, for your skin to produce vitamin D. That's a post from the Philly thread - the pros at Mt. Holly are discussing sun angle.

For the record, I do NOT believe this is an issue tomorrow - I was stunned that he mentioned it. Glenn is one of the best around.

Well...Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz was discussing this live on TV at 4...

For most of this season storms have been modeled too high with QPF only to see a reduction in the final 24-48 hours. I think there's a correlation to that being Nina influenced. That's a guess based on my perception, perhaps @MAG5035 could actually provide real analysis. We've been saying for a few days that 10, perhaps 12" was the max for this storm in a few lucky spots - this was never going to be a prolific snow maker. Flow is WAY too progressive to allow for monster totals.

As Eric says "folks...it's Meteorology, not Modelology"

@Festus Here is Mark Ellinwood's map - I always thought he did a tremendous job with snowfall predictions:

I know...nothing easy about PA snows in a Nina. We have to scratch and claw our way to victory.

Euro, NAM, and Icon all look similar now. (except for the NAM's second max up into true CPA)

CTP just hoisted warnings from Perry County down to Franklin and SE of there it looks like. Edit: Fulton County on east. Edit (2): That includes the Skook as well!

@Mshaffer526 I think CTP had a map this morning with 9" "Expected" for LNS.

They cut it by 1/3. LNS was 9" on the previous map...

I say they update between 3:30 -4:00. They want to take a good look at the king first. (NAM)

I'll bite on point #3 - we've been lacking a large temperature gradient for much of the winter that has hampered the development of large storms. This is an overexaggerated example - as we roll into March, I'd anticipate a bigger range (gradient) and the opportunity for larger storms to present itself.

That is 100% correct! Para was a biggy snowstorm north and south of the Rt. 30 corridor...Euro filled the center of the sandwich and removed the buns.

Yes - this run as depicted helped those who traditionally mix at the expense of those who don't.

For us...it might actually be better. For those north, obviously not. We might get a little more white gold at the expense of mixing.

I hate my instincts... I woke up today with a bad feeling. Don't know why.

Pretty sure Brian is working right now. I have the inside scoop.

It's fascinating how we allow thoughts to cloud our perspective - there hasn't been a dramatic shift in guidance and I was never expecting anything more than what guidance suggests today. I said early on that 3-6" was my first call and I'm sticking with it. I think sometimes seeing map after map that shows amounts that double that..."distract" me, or influence my judgement, I really need to tune those out even more. To me, this is a 3-6" snowfall for Lanco with significant ice to follow and I'm sticking with it.

I'll be honest and I don't want to poo poo on the party which is why my posts have been few and far between today... Since Sunday, I have felt exceptionally good AND confident about this storm. My faith in this storm is wavering big time today for 2 reasons: overall less QPF being modeled, and more importantly, mixing issues. Someone talk me back from the precipice. First one to alleviate my fear gets a free brewskie.

I'm every bit as ugly in person as my pic suggests. This has been talked about before, we really should do this.

I'm 5 miles south of Elizabethtown - I can't tell you how many times the landscape has been whiter in Bear country and then down here in the land of the Tribe. In these situations - latitude, and to some extent longitude absolutely matter.