Itstrainingtime

MAG, I got the CMC and GEFS mixed up. Sorry about that!

It shifted the higher probs significantly south.

It seemed for years that the Euro and Ukie were lock-step with each other, and if one deviated, the other followed immediately on the next run. The past year or two the Ukie has seemed more erratic - hoping that is the case here. But man, can you ever see the confluence draining out of NE on the Ukie....

I'll use the most uttered phrase on these boards now because this time I really believe it - this is a HUGE Euro run upcoming at 1pm.

From what I could see, the only snow we get at all from the Ukie is the WAA. To Brian's (daxx) point earlier, to me it looks like the coastal forms and escapes due east. We get nothing from that. PSU is harping suppression issues once again.

Ukie is south. Like WAY south. Like it's a VA special. Most in here get very little, border areas might see several inches on the Uncle verbatim. Hopefully, this is one time that the Euro does NOT follow the Ukie's lead... It's hard for me to decipher Ukie panels. Perhaps the above isn't totally accurate, but I think I see the gist of it.

I honestly don't know. I only knew about them from this forum. I have zero social media accounts other than Linkedin and have no intention of ever having any.

S&S Stormchasers. The creators of social media hysteria with snow maps.

The real issue is ignorance. And I don't use that word in a mean-spirited way. I know enough about weather to ignore snow maps. Honestly, I don't really spend time looking at them much at all. That's my choice, I know that many love them, and that is great too! The problem, bigger scale, is when a map is posted and put out there for people that know nothing about the weather. They see an outlandish map, and automatically, it becomes a forecast. That's the problem. It's not in this forum, it's with the public at large. (and how they're perceived)

Ends up being a 1 to 2' storm across most of the area. Not too shabby.

Prior to that, a lot of us mix taking the GFS verbatim. It takes the primary to Latrobe before dying it off. Everyone in the southern third of PA taints Sunday night/Monday morning before the coastal takes over. Ended up being a good run, but there are things to work out still.

My go-to was Joe Lundberg. Straight shooter who hated winter, so when he was getting excited about snow...you knew it was going to snow. Edit: Actually, I think Joes used to post in here occasionally.

That's HM as in Henry Margusity. The ultimate met weenie. Man, I miss his entertaining video rants...

Paranoia isn't a bad thing. There's a reason why huge events don't happen that often. It's easier to fail than to win. People talk about PSUHoffman always looking for what can go wrong, but very often...something goes wrong. I think you made a very valid point and it needs to at least be considered as a possibility. I am always on the taint train because both history and my climo suggest that I taint far more often than what models originally depict. And further...when models do depict taint, it almost always advances further north and west than depicted.

Most on the list were HUGE hits, including #2 and #3. It was #1 that was the fail.

There was talk yesterday about the analogs for this potential event. Interestingly, the #1 analog was 2000 = a complete whiff east.

No mixing in '96 However, the primary died WELL south of where this one is progged. I don't think we're going to mix because of the coastal's position on the coast, I think we'll mix because of the north advancement of the primary. Once the coastal takes over, we'll go back to snow. '93 was 6 hours of nothing but sleet for me during the midday hours on Saturday. That was a super-tucked bomb, though.

Very good news. I still believe it's prudent for you and me to expect some taint before the coastal takes over completely - that's how we roll with a dying primary in OH.

Good morning! Slow getting up last night after watching the Euro run...holy crap! At any rate, to finish this post, Horst thinks this is the classic storm for a Lanco Snow -mix - snow. Details in the next 24 hours. As excited as I was to see the Euro, my first thought was "this is fantastic...but it needs to stop moving north NOW."

Euro

Euro is a shellacking!

It's Wednesday. There is plenty of time for him to slowly ramp up wording and amounts. I'd rather that than go big now and have to keep backpeddling. He could at least mention the possibility of a major storm, perhaps he has said that...

GFS is sending the primary towards Pittsburgh. Verbatim, the southern tier sees a LOT of mixing. QPF totals don't look especially high given the slow development and track of the coastal. It's pretty strung out.

You're the perfect one to say this at the perfect time. I've created "A Day In The Life of Central PA" threads that accurately depict comments like this. You're absolutely right, by the way. And I for one will NOT forget this over the coming days.

This! I've been saying for some time that I don't want to be near the edge, especially the southern edge. Thing is...I think there's an upside to this for our area. I'm not sure that the maps show the best case scenario. (caveat - it could also go the other way)