Itstrainingtime

GFS is 1-1.5" of QPF, all snow for us...

Hard to tell exactly, but it looks like a general 10-15" with lolli's on the ICON. Northern NJ gets buried...looks in excess of 2'?

MAG, that's a great call - thank you for your thoughts, as always.

Thank you! Glad I wasn't the only one on that train. @Mshaffer526 you were watching this too! If this can keep going the other way (less confluence) our potential prize goes up...

I'll be the first to throw the challenge flag...

I gained about .5" of QPF from the 0z run. Verbatim...it's about 7" of snow for me. Last night's run was barely over 1".

Look at how that hole over NE PA really eroded on the most recent run. That is what I wanted to see.

To me, what I took from the Euro was 1) confluence eased off somewhat, and 2) the precip shield has a better east-west alignment today. Positives..

I just want that perturbation coming SE out of New England to relax and retreat. We need that to happen to end up really happy...

It is indeed me...2019 in Washington DC at the international HR conference. I started every day there with a big a** bowl of Cap'n Crunch!

I've never once had them.

Fair enough. I'm not here to cast doom and gloom. I've been going on 3 hours sleep all week solely to stay up for the Euro, hoping and hoping that I see something that I like. The past 2 days I haven't seen that. I'm not here to piss on Cheerios, I'm here because I have a passion for weather in general, snow in particular, and I love to read and share. Funny, by nature I'm known as an extremely positive/optimistic person, but, and this is a big but...I do not roll with blinders on. I will not ignore negative things and pretend they don't exist. I tend to be the first, or one of the first, to throw the challenge flag in this thread. I've been an ardent follower of the weather since 1972. I've learned a LOT over the years, received a 104% final grade on Meteo in school, and would have pursued my met degree in college if life wouldn't have thrown me a curve ball years ago. You've said this yourself - it's easy to be negative because more often than not, we fail when it comes to snow. If i downplay and you hype every potential event, I'll be right more than you. We know this, but that is NOT my intent. I try and share the why. And there are times when my "why" is off base even though I end up being "right" but the bottom line is this - I'm really just trying to be objective. Sometimes I take it too far, yes. But look...I want it to snow. Like really, really bad. And I'm looking for signs that this thing is going to come back.

To be fair, I'm not selling. I'm trying to have a balanced discussion including hype, logic, reason, and everything in between. I'm not rooting against this nor do I hope that I'm right in what I'm thinking right now. I'm here for one reason, it's not to play poo poo or to be a pain in the arse. But things have happened, are happening, and I'm offering a counterpoint. I will try and post actual weather updates going forward and leave my thoughts and opinions out of here.

Anyone want a storm update? The energy for our SUN/MON storm is now coming thru CA & NV with snow & rain. Low pressure will develop over OK on Saturday and track to OH on Sunday...then re-develop off the VA coast Sunday PM into Monday. This type of "jump storm" is very complex... ...and they are known to give forecasters (and snow lovers) fits. #bustpotential That said, if things play out just right...then snowfall would exceed our December storm. But given the complexity of the playing field, it would be imprudent to be talking "numbers" today... #nohype Saturday AM is the right time to make the call on snowfall. Check back. Timing: Light snow is likely Sunday afternoon w/ the steadiest snow (or mix) late Sunday night into Monday...tapering off by Tuesday AM. Bust factors: Sharp northern edge, dry slot, sleet, coastal low track. Horst's thoughts.

Is the PARA replacing the current GFS?

I maintain that confluence can erode that WAA - the confluence has been trending stronger, not weakening. Your point in general about the differences in each setup and things change over time is well noted and prudent.

This. I laid out an idea going into last Monday about how I could see a path to us getting nothing this week. We ended up getting pretty much nothing. I still fear the WAA weakens before reaching us, the coastal whiffs east, and we're looking at little ground truth come early next week. For those west of say I-83 I think the WAA delivers a decent thump.

How much of that is from the WAA vs. the coastal?

Talk about not knowing what to think. The plot thickens...

We shall see. I hope you are right!

I don't. I'm not sure how those of us this far north and east can feel good about it at all - look at what just happened several days ago. That is some serious confluence draining SE out of New England. Not saying we don't thump, but I'm not putting money on it happening.

12z: NAM: Hope for the front thump ICON: We hug tight and don't let go RGEM: South of 6z, little above the M/D line

I read one met's opinion this morning that he believes the Euro is out to lunch with how it's handling the energy and it will correct itself and end up hitting us. Next met came along and said exactly what you did - the Euro is simply handling/responding to the pattern...shred and weaken, shred and weaken...

I don't think this setup is anything like Boxing Day... ...other than perhaps the final result.

If the Euro was the only model showing a snowstorm, it would cave to the rest. When it's the only model not showing a snowstorm, all other guidance moves towards it. Uncanny...