Itstrainingtime

Snowpack is taking a beating today. At the very least, there's likely a lot of wintry weather ahead. Could be prolific amounts of snow and/or ice depending on where one sits on the boundary.

I'd say a general 1-3" for now, can always adjust up a little tomorrow if need be.

My yard varies greatly due to sun exposure - my depth ranges from just about 3" in fully exposed areas (she'll be toast today) to almost 9" in the shade.

Our friend who retired from MU disagrees, and says that energy behind it will kick it out and give us a couple/few inches at most. That was discouraging to read... It's time for him to be wrong.

Beggars can't be choosy - I got nothing here. Can't mark it down as a trace because I saw no evidence of anything. (though it might have done SOMETHING overnight) Fun times ahead for sure!

We're going to need rates otherwise it'll be snow TV with marginal temperatures. Seems like we'll either get a solid event or little to nothing on the ground.

That looks like a step back from 18z? It was just off the VA coast on the last run. Maybe I'm too old to read. Edit: based on clown maps it took a big step back.

This is escalating quickly!

Horst: A hyperactive pattern w/ loads of cold air to tap spells SNOW for the MidAtlantic the next ~10 days. There's a weak clipper for dawn FRI, a brush w/ snow likely SUN, and then 2 more systems queued for next TUE &FRI. Lots of potential--but you don't shovel potential! Developing...

You fringed your way to 2' a few days ago.

You can tell it's February as well - went outside for a bit and it felt mighty nice in the sun.

That's almost exactly what the Euro depicted 48 hours ago. She's getting interesting!

It's about time Williamsport and environs have a good winter - you should get snow up there, and recently there have been many years it just hasn't happened. I remember as a kid taking trips up 44 North above Haneyville, there always seemed to be a few feet of snow on the ground. These days, not so much. Euro made a nice move NW for Sunday. Not enough, but the jet has sharpened markedly over the past 12-24 hours to the point where some of us can entertain the possibilities for Sunday...

Yes. I remember Horst saying that historically Lancaster received 1-2 double digit snowfalls per decade. Off the top of my head, since 2000 these years had at least one: 2000 2003 2009 2010 (2) 2012 2016 2017 2018 2020 2021 I know I'm missing a couple, but right there is 11 over the past 21 years. That's an average of 1 every 2 years.

14.4" is exactly what I ended up with!

Our good friends over at Mt. Holly aren't enthused at all about Sunday (even for the coast) and here's why: Deterministic guidance over the past 24 hours has taken an eastern shift in a potential surface low track however there`s still quite a bit of spread in the ensemble guidance. I suspect over the next couple of days we`ll see this trend continue as the 250mb jet axis acts as a wall to push the developing low pressure system off shore. However its certainly within the ensemble envelope that we`ll see the low pressure system sneak back inside and towards the coast. So its worth watching for changes but likely the storm will have little impact over the region other than to bring rather cold temperatures to the region. Temps early next week will be running on the order of 10 degrees below normal with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens.

Seeing a few flurries here for the first time since 8am yesterday.

I was thinking about you earlier today. On Sunday you were telling everyone that you MIGHT get a nice advisory event for this past storm. I think you said 4-6"? And you ended up with how much, Mr. snow capital of the east? 3-6" on Sunday would be perfect. Nice appetizer before I start big game hunting next week.

Not sure there's a whole lot of upside with Sunday (next week might be a different story) but a 4-8" type of snowfall is on the table if things work out right.

And for the past hour it's been exceptionally windy!

Not entirely true - Para GFS is actually running west of us from what I can tell. We have several south, one west, and the Euro just about perfect, at least for the LSV. Not a bad place to be right now.

Cold is great for snowpack longevity but we risk suppression as well.

Final post I'll make for this storm. Looking back, if you ignore the crazy QPF amounts it was depicting, I thought the RGEM performed as well as any other model. For the days leading up to the storm it consistently showed a very heavy swath of snow over eastern PA. It moved the target from the Philly metro west over my area, and then started shifting it a bit towards the LV, but considering that many locations in the LV have exceeded 30", my lasting impression was that the RGEM had the basic idea on where the heaviest snowfall was going to occur. GFS and NAM were super jumpy, the NAM didn't catch on until 6 hours after the event started. The Euro really smoothed out the area of heaviest snow and was too high in most of the LSV, and had that crazy blip on one of the 0z runs that took almost everything to the south of PA. Ukie ended up fairly close but was swinging wildly run to run leading up to the event.

Sun has been in and out here for at least 3 hours. Snowpack is down to nearly 9" already.

No - the flow definitely suggest in and out quickly. Even with a direct hit it's likely a 6-12 hour event.