Itstrainingtime

Verbatim, the upcoming cold push is keeping it from snowing (much) the next few days. After that, the cold push charges out so fast it again keeps it from snowing. (much) That high is hauling east on the Euro and we are flooded with warm air. I thought at first that we'd have a pretty good CAD setup and a decent amount of frozen, but no...

It looks like it's headed west for sure - fun to track if it happens.

Euro doesn't look good for Thursday and Friday - south and dry.

I'm less than an amateur - admittedly, beyond looking at models faithfully, I then resort to my climo and intuition. To me, several days ago when the maps were really pretty for the Wednesday PM - Friday deal, my concern was the precip would be suppressed and weaker simply because we didn't have a strong vort attacking it. If something is weak and coming in waves, it's much easier for the cold press to shred, weaken, suppress. And I was only throwing out a question/caution because I've seen it happen a "few" times over the years. Doesn't mean it won't snow, I was just expressing/asking something that looked like a red flag to me. I was convinced that this past Sunday would be far less than the 4-7" that models and others were painting. I ended up with less than 2" of slop. I was convinced a couple of weeks ago that a storm that was modeled and forecasted to give me 3-5" would bust, and I got nada. Honestly, Nut, you've said this many times - in truth, it's easy to say it won't snow because history is definitely on the side of those who say it won't, but I really try to limit my questions/concerns to situations that warrant them. That usually works out really well for me. But again - it's not really super scientific - it's more of an understanding of history, climo, and how systems have interacted with each other in the past. This site is a GREAT place to learn. I have my met textbooks on my bookshelf that I still read, but that info pales to what one can learn here. I enjoy it, guys.

That's exactly what I had in between the rain drops.

I think round #2 has more upside as well.

Yes, we will. I just got caught up looking at the overnight/early morning guidance and...meh. Things seem to be settling pretty far south, but more importantly, pretty weak. And maybe the weak part is what's translating to the south part, but I don't know.

No snow, no ice, no rain, no...nothing from last night's storm. On to the next one!

EXACTLY my fear from yesterday.

Wow...admittedly, I haven't paid attention to tomorrow at all...

Yep, agreed 100% with both assertions.

Bitter cold is fine AFTER the snowstorms. Let's build a base and keep it around for a while.

@MAG5035 any chance we risk suppression on Thursday? The boundary seems to be shifting south each day, and we're still 4 days out.

I'll be disappointed if I don't!

Final event total: 1.7" Season to date: 27.1"

It is indeed. Nice to have snow on the ground going in to this to help it accumulate on the cold surfaces. Without that it would be mostly a snow TV event, at least here.

Morning all, welcome to late March! Moderate snow has accumulated 1.7" here so far but there is little on vehicles and nothing on the roads. Looks very much like an early spring snowfall. But it's snow! My up to date season total just passed 27"...

Stunned...even though I said 1-3" yesterday I really thought in truth this puppy was going to wind up and get us pretty good. Meh.

Agree 100%. I said 1-3" yesterday and while it might be a little more, it is going the wrong way today.

I'm not sure...I really hope you're right, but the 12z suite doesn't suggest those amounts outside of the NAM and SREFS. I do like your assertion on temps and dews - I'm shocked with how warm it is today. I'm losing snowpack much quicker today than I did yesterday. Grass is popping in sunny areas quickly today. Bottom line - we should be pretty close to the gradient.

No map, 3-6" in Lancaster county.

@MillvilleWx love when you're honking! Thank you again for popping in. Eric taught you well.

CTP has 4" for LNS for the expected accumulation for Sunday. It has 4" for LNS for the high end amount (10%) chance. I don't know if I've ever seen the expected amount be exactly the same as the high end amount...

LOL, NAM (Kuchera) is spitting out about 20" near the Delaware River just NE of Philly. That would be a crazy event in 8 hour or so.