I'm definitely in the camp that many more have come north. Off the top of my head, 75% is probably safe - it might be higher than that.
I got tired of saying last year how temps were almost without exception higher than modeled. It happens all the time. I'm saying that as a generalization, not specific to modeled arctic air days out. However, I also agree that a lot of modeled arctic air has modified before it reaches us - January 2018 is a notable exception to that.
To @Jns2183 point, more times than not it finds ways not to snow than it does for it to snow. We've done remarkably well this winter for a Nina but there have still been several misses that models were showing snow for our area that either didn't come to fruition or we ended up with far less than thought.