Itstrainingtime

Keeping those positive vibes going! This is still a somewhat precarious setup, and timing is critical, but for now... #itshappeningthursday

Yes - confluence. Again, i like the flow aloft...

I made a post last night basically saying that I was moving on from the upcoming week and focusing on the end of the month. I deleted it moments later because I just had a feeling about Thursday. I'm optimistic that something good comes from that. I like the flow aloft MUCH better than I did at any point for Tuesday's storm. #itshappeningthursday

Looks like Thursday trended somewhat better- nice front end thump of snow even down here. Do we need to sacrifice Tuesday to get a better outcome Thursday?

@Blizzard of 93 to your point - no one should be making any definitive statements about next week. We just don't know what will happen, and much is still on the table. Trends aren't good, but there is still hope given how close we are to the boundary.

For our big storm 2 weekends ago, I looked just looked at what the NAM and the Euro were depicting for Maytown 24 hours out: NAM: 11" Euro: 26" My final total - 12" I know that @paweather was riding the Euro really hard and ended up disappointed. It's only 1 storm, but it's interesting that the Euro was WAY snowier than reality. This is specific to my locale. Okay, carry on!

Exactly!

I remember the 0z GFS that you posted hours later that gave Carlisle 9" of snow that night. NAM has been doing better than given credit for. It has serious issues just like every other model. I'm waiting patiently for my 40 something inches the Euro was giving me earlier this week. Only post I will make on this. Let's hope this week trends better.

Did Rouzerville join the Tug or something? It's always snowing in Bubbler's hood.

I have only used Ewall - ever. That is plenty to overload my brain.

Exactly!

But it is rare - last year was the first time I recall not dropping below 10 degrees once. And it looks like it might very well happen for the 2nd year in a row.

@Jns2183 That GFS snow map showing 3.9" for LNS is the same model that had 46.5" for LNS 5 days ago. I know I'm in the minority and I also appreciate and respect other's views, but this is why I despise those maps. I think there's a certain feeling that comes over us when we look at a map like that as a snow weenie - can't really describe it, but given how many love those maps, I suspect that the feeling I'm trying to describe is felt by many in here. I just don't like them because the very best thing that they're good at is this... Getting my ( or others) hopes up only to squash them in subsequent runs. I'd rather just not see the 45" or more that I'm not going to actually get. Hopefully - and I mean this - that map is revived in real life and we all get dumped on.

I'm fairly certain (didn't bother to look, admittedly) that MDT did not get to single digits last year - I know my low for the season last year was 13, which is the warmest, coldest night that I can remember. This winter has been sort of comatose. There just has not been any wild fluctuations. Really, I'd wager that 80% or more of the days this winter has featured highs between 35-45. No thaws, no arctic snaps. Just the same thing over and over. As far as the storm pattern and potential lack of wintry precip, I thought Hoffman made a great point yesterday. All guidance started weakening the system for tomorrow night/Sunday morning, which is allowing some amplification of a little vort passage on Monday. This in turn will dampen the flow for Tuesday's wave and also prevent high pressure from establishing a reinforcement of cold air. That little vort for Monday wasn't showing on guidance until the past 24-48 hours, and it's helping to screw up the pattern for Tuesday.

Speaking of north trends and how often they occur - we haven't paid attention to tonight for a couple of days now, but tonight's wave looks like it might produce some snow much farther north than it did 24 hours ago. In fact, snow might very well make it up to DC tonight, last night it was buried some 90 miles further south. (aka, Bubbler's "King's Dominion" special) Doesn't affect us, but it's worth noting and filing away.

Horst daily update: Thursday Update: An active pattern thru next week...but tonight's weak system is "miss" (nothing more than flurries). Saturday night into Sunday could be more problematic w/ a period of sleet & freezing rain. Then there's the Mon/Tues storm...stronger w/ a heavier "wintry mix".

That's a good read and I agree with this perspective. When I'm talking about climo, I'm referring very specifically to a weather event and what has previous events similar in nature impacted my area. If a 996 low centered directly over the Delmarva has brought mixing to my neighborhood over the past 56 years (my lifetime) and other factors are similar as well - I'm going to expect that mixing will occur from the current storm regardless of what models depict. If a clipper is approaching from the NW or even on a due W>E trajectory, history has shown that they often dry out crossing the mountains. So - I'm being very specific to how previous storms have affected Lancaster when most or all other parameters are the same. If the same storm strength and track has resulted in mixed bag events for me, I'm going to go out on a limb and expect a mixed bag event the next time, pretty snow maps be damned.

I want that every bit as much as you do, trust me. The only upside to many smaller events is you obviously tend to have snow cover longer. But there's nothing like the excitement leading up to, and during a crippling snowstorm. Best of times for me right there.

This is 100% truth - and because of this, I think odds favor "surprise" events that suddenly trend in our favor in the near term, and I think we'll also lose potentially good looks the same way. Watching something 7-10 days out right now I think should be for entertainment purposes only.

I was going to address this with you - I know you're looking for the grand slam right now, but I think we're much more likely to see storms depicted as big dogs in advance, only to see them trend weaker in time. Doesn't mean we won't/can't get significant amounts of snow - but right now I don't see signs of what you want. (for now)

That...is perfectly said. Word for word.

The NAM has some SERIOUS limitations. That's indisputable. One thing that I love about it is this - if guidance is showing a storm missing south and the NAM is further north and amped, a lot of times the rest of guidance will follow it. Not always, but my first "sign" to get excited is when the NAM is north of everything else. That's a double edged sword as well - there are times when the NAM is north of what we would want and other guidance nails us. We'll often fail while areas north of I 80 get smoked. It's wonky, it's jumpy, and yes, it can throw out absurd QPF amounts. It sounds like you use it similar to what I do - I just look for the positives that it can contribute, which there are some.

I highly doubt next Tuesday's storm cuts. I'd bet money it goes underneath...question is, how far underneath...

Red tagger just made this post in the thread to our south - this really resonates with me. I bolded what I've been saying for some time. I particularly like the last statement. During La Niña, models tend to over amplify weather systems several days out from onset. Overamped, too much moisture, only to see it correct toward the onset time. This latest event is a prime example as across the board guidance was giving a 6-10” area wide event and more like 10”+ on the euro, only to cave to a minor system...even by I-70 standards. Last storm very similar with the euro giving 25-30” at day 4/5 only to be cut back. For the hobbyist, it might be a sting to the gut, but for those working in the field, the inconsistency and wild swings have made forecast ops and communication to high level partners even up into high tier Gov partners a nightmare! Briefings for these “major” events that crop up at day 3-5 in NWP gain attention quickly then to have the rug pulled after you’ve messaged people is tough. One factor, could be minor, but it is a factor in such inconsistent data is the lack of domestic air travel in the U.S. we know the euro model in particular relies on aircraft data which air travel is 1/10th of what it was. Same with other guidance. Perhaps other factors we don’t know about. Niña years are tough as it is. Two conclusions I can draw from this season is... 1) the euro is not what the euro was, and 2) the NAM is useful outside its perceived “wheelhouse”. NAM is great at depicting changes, details in the pattern evolution that is not seen in the globals. It’s done well this season in that regard, overdone with front end waa snow. 3) it’s guidance only! Not verbatim. Know your patterns and climo vs model chasing.

This is probably the only thing we disagree on buddy. I do like the NAM a lot more than you do - in no way do I think it's great but I think it's better than what most give it credit for. It absolutely nailed the January 2016 storm, and as I recall it did well with some of the biggies back in '09-'10. Honestly, this winter, I'm not trusting any model.