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Itstrainingtime

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Everything posted by Itstrainingtime

  1. Itstrainingtime
    My point and click was actually lowered just a bit from last night - again, a 3-6" snowfall with ice on top will more than satisfy me!
  2. Itstrainingtime
    To my eyes on the GFS the fronto band was well south of us. It looked like we made up for it with another impulse that moved through later in the PM. If that's the case, we'll definitely need to proceed with caution as that would allow warmth aloft to move overhead by that point. We need the thump to realize the totals we're seeing on the pretty maps.
  3. Itstrainingtime
    Thanks all - I was just knee-jerk reacting to the SLP placement.
  4. Itstrainingtime
    People have been questioning all winter how can we get rain from a storm that is off the east coast - How in the world do we get snow from a storm over Michigan?
  5. Itstrainingtime
    I can't get the NAM to load tonight, but it sounds like it's much better for Thursday
  6. Itstrainingtime
    My temp has slowly backed down from 33.4 at 6pm to its current 32.2 My point and click is for 4-6" total. I'd be thrilled with that!
  7. Itstrainingtime
    DC special here. Rain and 33...
  8. Itstrainingtime
    Considering where we were 48 hours ago, 3-6" would be a win.
  9. Itstrainingtime
    I honestly think the most realistic "expectation" right now should be 3-6". I would NEVER expect more than 6" from this setup or you will likely be disappointed. We might still not get that much - but 3-6" sounds about right for now.
  10. Itstrainingtime
    You're not kidding - it really struck me on my way home from the office how the landscape changed today.
  11. Itstrainingtime
    Agree that this is the last storm in the current train, not sure we don't have at least the Amtrak Keystone train in March. Enough long range tellies to suggest that we might have an active month - and of course we can score big time then. Regardless, this might be the curtain closer for February. I'm about .8" below my annual average for snowfall. I'll take the over on that.
  12. Itstrainingtime
    Confluence typically backs off the last 24-48 hours prior to an event - I still like where we're sitting as of now.
  13. Itstrainingtime
    I like having the Ukie on my side - I think it often gets overlooked but it's overall verification scores are pretty good. We're building a pretty good team for Thursday.
  14. Itstrainingtime
    Thanks for posting that, I hadn't seen it yet. Sounds like he's warming up to a more wintry event, which is good.
  15. Itstrainingtime
    Ukie is a flat-out beatdown!
  16. Itstrainingtime
    I feel much more comfortable seeing it south than north - especially in this setup.
  17. Itstrainingtime
    NAM gives serious pause to Thursday. Way more amped and likely zero snow here as depicted. Because it's keying all of the energy on the lead vort heading west, our winds are very unfavorably out of the SW. (just as Nut said a few hours ago) I liked this threat yesterday assuming NE flow with confluence - we need that or we're cooked.
  18. Itstrainingtime
    Truth!
  19. Itstrainingtime
    For tonight's storm the southern extend of the snow zone has shifted northwest like 250 miles over the past 3 days...
  20. Itstrainingtime
    I mean...3 days ago, YOU were under several inches of snow for tonight's storm. How much are you expecting now? It doesn't matter what you post - how many times this year has 4-8" been reduced to 3-5" to be reduced to 2-3" and then to nothing? Do you realize how far you'll need to drive to see snow tonight?
  21. Itstrainingtime
    NAM also looked last night like it was going to be farther N/W of other guidance for Thursday. NAM is riding the hot hand right now... Sorta.
  22. Itstrainingtime
    I agree. If we don't see bleeding today I'll feel better. Even if we're in the "snow zone" tomorrow but have lost ground from where we're at now, I'm taking my skeptic hat back from Nut.
  23. Itstrainingtime
    You woke up as me today. I don't disagree with anything you're suggesting. I thought yesterday I would take my skeptic hat off...I didn't realize that you were waiting to put it on so soon!
  24. Itstrainingtime
    As I said in my first post- Thursday is tenuous. It's a thread the needle deal for sure as we'll only have a small window of opportunity before we lose the air above our heads...
  25. Itstrainingtime
    Well, you have Horst on your side which definitely gives me pause. He's been saying that Thursday is a rainer in Lanco.
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