While CTP has significantly lowered rain chances, they seem somewhat "enthused" about severe:
The warm front should arrive in the srn counties Sunday
morning.
Some breaks in the clouds should heat things up again during the
late morning and afternoon right along with the dewpoint rise
and juicy PWATs around 2 inches.
Sct convection is expected with rather meager CAPE to be found
in the aftn according across the NE half of the state, while the
combination of a better chance for periods of sunshine and more
broad- looping hodographs in the low-levels across southern and
perhaps central PA, creates the better chance for strong to
severe convection with 0-1 km EHIs in the 1-3 M2/S2 range in the
afternoon and early evening. in addition, the low-level shear
vector, storm motion and close proximity of the warm front,
suggest the most favorable area for TSRA ingestion of moderately
strong llvl streamwise vorticity will be over south- central PA
and the Laurel Highlands between 20Z Sunday and 02Z Monday when
0-1KM EHIs could peak in the 2-3 M2/S2 range.
Per Coordination with SPC, they expanded their DY2 MRGL risk for
severe across practically all of our CWA, with an inclusion of
2% tornado risk.
There is also a bit of CIN to be found in the soundings. Thus,
the convection could struggle to get going, or be elevated
enough to mitigate any worries of wind gusts, at least initially
over the south, and perhaps for a longer period over the
northern zones.
Highs Sunday will be in the m70s N and low-mid 80s in the South.