Itstrainingtime

Thanks for sharing. Very well stated. For the record, I wasn't "squabbling" with anyone. I posted a detailed, lengthy discussion by a met who is local to my area. I don't go on and on about him, when he updates his discussions (1-2 times/week) I post them. Last night, I "introduced" his discussion by simply saying that he isn't enthused. He's not. If people actually read his discussion, they would have seen that he's much more enthused on wintry weather in the I81/78 corridor and N&W from there. Someone made a comment that it might be a lot worse where they live and not in Lancaster - that's exactly what the man said! After all, he IS Lancaster-specific. At any rate, despite his bias for this area, he posts what I think are fantastic discussions. He goes into great detail on WHY something will or won't happen. I remember last week when Blizz asked MAG his thoughts on an upcoming storm chance, and MAG's response was essentially "well I think that Kyle Elliott summed it up very well". And that is why I post his thoughts. MAG does the same thing - he'll go into the WHY. The WHY matters. I have learned so much about the WHY. I take the time to read and learn. Not saying others don't do that, but there are times when maps are posted and I think to myself "I really hope such and such doesn't actually think that'll play out". Because the WHY doesn't support the map. At the end of the day, I can look at dozens and dozens of pretty maps BUT I want to know if it's even possible what the model posted suggests. That's where the WHY comes in to play. I'm not lookin for more heartache, I want to know what's likely going to happen.

I don't criticize mets. I have defended CTP here repeatedly. Not sure why this was said.

And he also believes in meteorology and not modelogy.

I think that's what he's saying... No one said he's the be all to all. He's a good met. He posted a good discussion. If you don't like it you certainly don't have to read it. I thought on a weather forum that a weather discussion was relevant to post.

Kyle Elliott downplaying both Friday and Sunday for the LSV here: https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php

Sun angle is complex. Some factors to consider: How much light is filtering through - not all overcast skies are the same. Rate of snowfall. Heavy snow (true heavy snow) will accumulate on all surfaces in mid March with temps near freezing. But it needs to be ripping Time of day snow is falling I contend that sun angle issues have begun in SOME sense. For example, light snow in late December might accumulate on all surfaces at 30. We just saw last week that isn't the case any longer There's a lot to this, and I take notes of every snowfall at different times, different rates, etc. Anyone that tells you that sun angle issues are reserved only for March...well, that's just not true. Though like I said, it depends on several factors.

Model mayhem! I'm running the AC according to the Nam and Icon, and according to the GFS I'm running the...eh. Never mind. LOL

Exactly why I and others weren't excited yesterday. The event hasn't happened yet but these scenarios rarely ever work out down here.

Home from the office. If not Tim, I know someone else wearing short right now...

40 here. Feels really, really good outside. Not going to lie.

Holy skating rinks - Euro is really starting to hammer the ice accretion aspect. Every run over the past 3 days shows an incremental increase.

Don't forget Drummond - 16 points and 23 boards. He was a force underneath last night.

Big win last night without Embiid against a very good Memphis team.

Cold push looks better so far on the NAM and the surface low seems a little slower. Both are good things I believe.

Hoping for dry weather tomorrow night as I'll be watching Beal & Co. in south Philly.

Oh, and I tried to be specific earlier this morning about this - in NO way am I downplaying a significant winter weather event. I am less enthused about actual snow. I could see real issues with ice, however.

My "little snow" are a few small piles in shady areas. I lost actual snow cover some time ago. But there's been something white on the ground for weeks.

Sadly I agree. South of the turnpike might get icy, but remain fairly brown for the foreseeable future.

Interesting to watch unfold. Not enthused for my area at all. GFS took a couple of steps back at 0z and 6z for the southern tier. North and west of Harrisburg there's more to like. My post is specific to snowfall.

Bingo. And that's my biggest hang up in a progressive pattern. Nothing is moving slowly right now.

My forecast for Friday is rain and 52. Obviously, they are already forecasting quite a gradient.

Essentially, would you rather track storms all winter that ended up missing us but hit areas around us, or would you rather have a boring season where no one got hit.

For those that answered my little Monday morning poll, much thanks! Tracking is definitely a big part of our winter gig, and I can't imagine having a winter void of any chances. And I never, ever begrudge snow that others get. I'm just ready for our area (LSV) to join in on the seasonal snow dance. It'll likely come in March...when it's here today, and gone...today.

That map perfectly illustrates why I asked the question that I did this morning. Lancaster County - the snowhole capital of the northeast.

End of January question for the weather masses: We close out the month with the sad reality that we've received 33% of the amount of snow that Atlantic City has season to date. There's been more snow north, west, south, and east of our area... So - would you prefer a winter like this with lots of tracking with little ROI; or, would you rather have little to track so that everyone is losing out? Me? I would pick the first option though admittedly it's getting a little shaky. This past weekend's storm started to wear on me a little. Even though we got exactly what I expected, this winter was to be lacking in big east coast storms. We JUST missed out on a big kahuna. Even Philly received about 8" (7.5" at PHL, 8.9" in NE Philly) Shift that 100 miles west and I wouldn't be asking the question that I did this morning. February is our snowiest month of the year so there's that...but there's no guarantee that we'll get anything. After 15-20 FEET of snow fell on the Sierra during the last half of December, they are going to finish January with a complete shutout and nothing on the horizon. Some winters, even snowy places just don't snow. Will this be a winter of lots of frustration and near misses or will things even out as Blizz suggests?