@paweather So...the MU Weather Director is saying "there's a chance" (even if it's not a good one)
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which I discussed in detail last week, is likely to reach its peak negative value on Nov. 26 or 27 and not go back into its positive phase until Dec. 1 or 2. The blocking high pressure system across the North Atlantic will actually retrograde briefly westward and become centered over or just to the south of Greenland before shifting eastward again by the final day or two of the month. At the same time, the jet stream will bulge northward across the western U.S. and southwestern Canada and dip southward across the East. This jet stream reconfiguration will result in the coldest, 4-6 day stretch of weather we've seen since February.. and I'd be willing to bet that temperatures average some 5-10 degrees below normal over the last 5 days of the month. We typically experience highs in the 30s to low 40s and lows in the 20s to around 30 in late November when the large-scale weather pattern takes on this configuration, and I see no exception this time.
I'll end things by mentioning that I do see the possibility of a potential brush with wintry weather around the 28th or 29th of November. It's very typical to get light snowfall in La Nina winters from weak, fast-moving disturbances (deemed "Alberta Clippers") that race southeastward out of Canada, zip through the Midwest and end up reaching the East Coast within 24-48 hours. The large-scale weather pattern that lends itself to these types of systems is nearly identical to the one that should unfold over the last 5 days of the month. However, snowfall typically only occurs in a ~ 50-150 mile-wide band along and to the north of a clipper system's track, so it'll require a near-perfect storm track and overnight timing for any snow to occur in LanCo. It's definitely something I'll be keeping a close eye on this week since some guidance suggests this outcome, but the chance of receiving our first measurable snowfall before December is still only around 20%