Itstrainingtime

See my last post - a pretty good met from MU is in your camp.

Great, albeit lengthy writeup by Kyle Elliott at MU last night. Essentially, he believes the most likely scenario is pretty much what the GFS is showing...the ridge axis out west looks to set up to the west of Boise, Idaho. For the LSV to get a major snowstorm we'd want the ridge axis set up to the east of Boise. This would allow the low to plow northward through PA and bury the Appalachians. So, he's giving the GFS full props at this point. On terms of percentages, this is where he's at: Track through CPA: 45% Track up the coast: 30% Southern slider/out to sea: 25% He emphasized (obviously) that there are a ton of moving parts and things can/may change quickly and significantly; HOWEVER, he believes that the pattern supports the storm heading up through PA.

Thanks, and to your last sentence, hence my overall disappointment. As you know, I love weather extremes and I'm all in for bomb cyclone.

Question I'll throw out to anyone more knowledgeable than I am - a subtle change I've noticed since the 12z runs yesterday is an overall slight weakening of the surface low on some of the models. At first, I was disappointed to see that. However, and I know that the overall track matters more, but would a more wound up low also introduce more mixing issues than a weaker low? Or does that not matter at all.

Well said, and well timed. Great post.

Thanks for getting it.

A little less than half were "direct" hits and the ones that were not hits were mainly due to suppression.

Yep, anything inside (or even on) the coastline at that latitude spells drips and pingers in trainingland, and mounds of snow that bubbler cashes in on.

My temp has risen from a low of 14.2 at 8pm to 20.6 at 1:30am as the airmass moistens with a southerly breeze. My guess is that no one will be anywhere near the single digits by morning. But I know nothing.

How often does that happen with Saban's teams?

0z Euro is east of the GFS but west of the Ukie. Major snowfall for areas west of the Susky, significant mixing issues east.

I'm surprised he's not going with 40-60" for I95.

LOL - our good friend Roger Smith is already throwing accumulation amounts around.

Philly has a very loyal, passionate fanbase though. I think that game honestly is one of the more marquee matchups out there. And then there's the Super Bowl victory redemption thing.

I mean...if I could draw it up that benefited me the most, that's exactly what I'd want. I'll gladly take what I get.

All very true, other than I'm at 23 right now. Right about where projected.

You get a smackdown buddy!

Surprised they put Brady on at 1pm. Would have though the Bucs got a more lucrative time slot. Especially against Philly.

It sort of looks like a March 93 track without the strength. Lowest pressure as depicted now doesn't come close to the Superstorm. (not that this storm cannot have major impacts of course)

That's me. I'm the one that used to fly across the country to watch the Indiana Hoosiers play when Robert Montgomery Knight was head coach.

My wife has LONG since grown tired of me mimicking his pressers.

We recognize the challenges in front of us playing in a hostile environment. We take no sympathy, nor do we seek comfort. It's AFC playoff ball. The standard is still the standard until it's not the standard anymore. I'm appreciative of the guys, the effort from the guys, and man...I've still never had a losing season. I get paid to win, and that's all I do. Questions? LOL

Ukie looks south to me but it's hard for me to discern very well. And, that commentary is prior to what happens when it reaches the coast.

Indeed, this is a pretty sweet track for the 'Burg. Hopefully the Black and Gold can get back in town after their huge upset win in KC.

GFS continues the big daddy theme but with a track that will maul true Central PA at the expense of a lot of taint in the LSV.