Itstrainingtime

MU Weather Center@MUweather Replying to @MUweather (5/5) What does this mean for us? Systems like this are notorious for having a tight snowfall gradient. 50 miles can separate a coating from double-digit totals. Accumulating snow is unlikely north of the Mason-Dixon line, with the highest totals just S/E of I-95. #MdWx #vawx 20m MU Weather Center@MUweather Replying to @MUweather (4/5) Lastly, snowfall is often heaviest where difluence is greatest in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. In the image below, this is indicated by the solid, black lines (geopotential height contours) spreading apart from one another in the outlined area. 21m MU Weather Center@MUweather Replying to @MUweather (3/5) This one's a bit technical, but the highest snowfall totals and best rates usually occur along and just north of the strongest mid-level frontogenesis/warm air advection (two more indicators of rising motion and precip). This is often where the "deformation band" sets up. 21m MU Weather Center@MUweather Replying to @MUweather (2/5) In the sounding just southeast of the I-95 corridor, the dry layer isn't present, meaning that snow's actually reaching the ground. Now, in the sounding below, strong upward motion co-located with the Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ) is a great indicator of high snowfall rates.. 21m MU Weather Center@MUweather (1/5) Here's why it can be very misleading to look only at snowfall/precipitation output from models. A dry layer of air in the mid- and low-levels on the sounding near the Mason-Dixon line means that snowfall likely won't reach the ground (virga) despite the model suggesting it.

I don't know what to think for tomorrow and I'm sure as h*ll glad I'm not forecasting this.

Saw this post earlier but just now getting a chance to post - this is a great observation. Certainly don't want THAT dry of air and wishing for snow to be falling. Give me 28/25, not 28/15.

I certainly don't envy them - totally conceivable that no one north of the M/D line sees a flake out of this. Then again...

61 here now. Fantastic day!

This is his first storm to forecast...

MU's Director Of Meteorology isn't too enthused for tomorrow: (quoted below - and this is specific to Lanco) It's really nice outside. Just got back from an awesome walk along the river! Here is what MU's director of Meteorology was saying last evening about tomorrow: "Right now, a probabilistic snowfall forecast for LanCo. is the most prudent approach:60%: Trace or less30%: Coating - 1 inch10%: >1 inchI expect the highest totals across southern MD, northern VA and the Eastern Shore, where up to 6-8" could fall in a narrow band"

Clouds, a few peeks of sun, and 58 here. Sure feels good outside!

I mowed last Sunday and it hasn't grown since. Might give it a touch up if and when snow is coming.

Rain totals: 1/1 - ..81" 1/2 - .11" Total rainfall - .92"

.79" of rain here so far today.

Very disappointing. I feel for the programs and fans who have had their bowl games ripped away, some of them in the final hours prior to kick. It's a real shame.

PSU is spent on defense. Lack of depth with all of the starters out plus Arkansas punishing run game has done them in. She's over, barring mistakes by the Hogs.

Yep. Meanwhile, Clifford is doing everything he can today to keep them in it while getting his a** killed. He single-handedly led the team to the red zone, and finished it off with a dreadful pick in the endzone. Ugh.

I saw that too. Not good. I'll leave it at that.

Current score is 24-10. Game going exactly the way I thought it would.

Meanwhile...current radar suggests little additional rainfall for me. Total today is .16" = yet another gross underachiever.

Keep reposting this with subsequent runs...this is the type of post I'm always making. And it's worth noting because... ...well, we know the drill.

12z Euro with a 994mb low off of Cape May at 7am Friday.

I feel like the Ukie crushed my hopes repeatedly last winter. It's time for it to regain some mojo. There was a time when a Euro/Ukie combo was unbeatable.

Exactly! I feel the same way.

I saw that, and feel like this is one of those situations where we get teased JUST enough before the rug is firmly removed. Having said that, I'll always watch a miss south much more closely than a miss north. Infinitely more interesting this way.

It is truly Aleet FUKING Aleet worthy...

The 1/7 storm now looks identical on the 12z GFS.

.09" here with very light rain falling. Hopeful that we can get a few periods of something more significant this afternoon.