Itstrainingtime

Thump looks pretty stout though!

Not the best look. I think we want this to come in faster.

Fair questions and valid points. I guess what I'm looking for is what will cause the ridge axis to shift into a favorable position?

The Euro used to follow the Ukie (and vice versa) but not sure that's accurate any longer. Ukie did come west today at 12z.

Triple 3's here at the moment - 33.3

So the question becomes - will the pattern support an adjustment east with the LP?

In terms of science, a ridge axis positioned where it's projected to be will be a rainer in the LSV. (after an initial thump) That's what the met said.

See my last post - a pretty good met from MU is in your camp.

Great, albeit lengthy writeup by Kyle Elliott at MU last night. Essentially, he believes the most likely scenario is pretty much what the GFS is showing...the ridge axis out west looks to set up to the west of Boise, Idaho. For the LSV to get a major snowstorm we'd want the ridge axis set up to the east of Boise. This would allow the low to plow northward through PA and bury the Appalachians. So, he's giving the GFS full props at this point. On terms of percentages, this is where he's at: Track through CPA: 45% Track up the coast: 30% Southern slider/out to sea: 25% He emphasized (obviously) that there are a ton of moving parts and things can/may change quickly and significantly; HOWEVER, he believes that the pattern supports the storm heading up through PA.

Thanks, and to your last sentence, hence my overall disappointment. As you know, I love weather extremes and I'm all in for bomb cyclone.

Question I'll throw out to anyone more knowledgeable than I am - a subtle change I've noticed since the 12z runs yesterday is an overall slight weakening of the surface low on some of the models. At first, I was disappointed to see that. However, and I know that the overall track matters more, but would a more wound up low also introduce more mixing issues than a weaker low? Or does that not matter at all.

Well said, and well timed. Great post.

Thanks for getting it.

A little less than half were "direct" hits and the ones that were not hits were mainly due to suppression.

Yep, anything inside (or even on) the coastline at that latitude spells drips and pingers in trainingland, and mounds of snow that bubbler cashes in on.

My temp has risen from a low of 14.2 at 8pm to 20.6 at 1:30am as the airmass moistens with a southerly breeze. My guess is that no one will be anywhere near the single digits by morning. But I know nothing.

How often does that happen with Saban's teams?

0z Euro is east of the GFS but west of the Ukie. Major snowfall for areas west of the Susky, significant mixing issues east.

I'm surprised he's not going with 40-60" for I95.

LOL - our good friend Roger Smith is already throwing accumulation amounts around.

Philly has a very loyal, passionate fanbase though. I think that game honestly is one of the more marquee matchups out there. And then there's the Super Bowl victory redemption thing.

I mean...if I could draw it up that benefited me the most, that's exactly what I'd want. I'll gladly take what I get.

All very true, other than I'm at 23 right now. Right about where projected.

You get a smackdown buddy!

Surprised they put Brady on at 1pm. Would have though the Bucs got a more lucrative time slot. Especially against Philly.