Itstrainingtime

@paweather So...the MU Weather Director is saying "there's a chance" (even if it's not a good one) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which I discussed in detail last week, is likely to reach its peak negative value on Nov. 26 or 27 and not go back into its positive phase until Dec. 1 or 2. The blocking high pressure system across the North Atlantic will actually retrograde briefly westward and become centered over or just to the south of Greenland before shifting eastward again by the final day or two of the month. At the same time, the jet stream will bulge northward across the western U.S. and southwestern Canada and dip southward across the East. This jet stream reconfiguration will result in the coldest, 4-6 day stretch of weather we've seen since February.. and I'd be willing to bet that temperatures average some 5-10 degrees below normal over the last 5 days of the month. We typically experience highs in the 30s to low 40s and lows in the 20s to around 30 in late November when the large-scale weather pattern takes on this configuration, and I see no exception this time. I'll end things by mentioning that I do see the possibility of a potential brush with wintry weather around the 28th or 29th of November. It's very typical to get light snowfall in La Nina winters from weak, fast-moving disturbances (deemed "Alberta Clippers") that race southeastward out of Canada, zip through the Midwest and end up reaching the East Coast within 24-48 hours. The large-scale weather pattern that lends itself to these types of systems is nearly identical to the one that should unfold over the last 5 days of the month. However, snowfall typically only occurs in a ~ 50-150 mile-wide band along and to the north of a clipper system's track, so it'll require a near-perfect storm track and overnight timing for any snow to occur in LanCo. It's definitely something I'll be keeping a close eye on this week since some guidance suggests this outcome, but the chance of receiving our first measurable snowfall before December is still only around 20%

I mowed yesterday afternoon. After being in Pittsburgh and then down and out with the flu, I was surprised how green and vibrant my yard was given the number of freezes this season. I thought I was finished for the season (minus the day before snow mow) but we'll see what happens.

27 here this morning. Tonight should be the coldest night of the season so far.

I'm asking, I honestly have no idea - does the Farmer's Almanac ever call for a non-snowy winter?

Is it me or are WHTM and WGAL pretty much opposite each other? WHTM - cold early, WGAL - cold late.

Always, pal.

Believe me, we know.

Bubbler has this fun, down to earth persona going on until a winter storm looms. Then he suddenly gets very selfish.

In honor of WGAL's winter forecast tonight, I got a sneak peek and here' what they're going to say: (winter snow totals) Rouzerville: 37" Cashtown: 38.68321" Canderson: 29" with lots of drifting from strong winds Carlisle: 34" on 3.0002 QPF Summerdale: 31" and a 6 pack Marysville: 31", but with an included bonus snow map for November 2022 Palmyra: 31.5" with disappointment because the Euro promised 62" Maytown: 25" Nutstown: 27" Superstorm: 23" with 1" of ice

Talk to Ji...

Always best to go in with low expectations and high hopes. There was a time I was sorta partial to Janelle Stelson. I'm probably showing my age.

The way winter is shaping up...probably not. LOL

Yep, she started at WGAL in 1979.

I was an aspiring journalist back in the early 1980s. Kim came in and spoke to our journalism class. I won't go into great detail or saying anything too disparaging, but let's just say that she wasn't very encouraging to a teen who had a passion to become a sportswriter. 40 years later and that is my unfortunate personal experience with Kim Lemon.

40 this morning, .07" of rain since midnight.

Nice comeback, painful ending.

Thanksgiving day looks to be another of three. Potentially well into the 50s before cooling off again for Friday.

Truth! Back on the home front, a glimpse into the future today...

21 point 1st quarter - I thought; man, that's a statement start. 28 points in the 2nd quarter - umm...loss of words now.

Not sure about that. I'm 56 and watching pathetic possession after posession. I don't remember the last time I missed a game.

26 was my low, this tied my lowest reading of the season. A Penn State football team that was ranked #3 in the nation 6 weeks ago concludes the home portion of an anticlimactic season today.

The idea of following science and not models is something that good mets do. The new guy at Millersville took the time to explain the why behind it - good read in words that all can understand: It's no secret that there's been a lot "hype" circulating over the potential for an early-season snowstorm in parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast early next week. In situations like these, it's very important to consider what's most likely to happen from a climatological perspective. Late-November climatology tells us that it's rare for a major snowfall to impact the Lower Susquehanna Valley and I-95 corridor from New York to Washington, D.C., and large-scale features in next week's weather pattern aren't in the right places for this rule to be broken. To understand why this is the case, it's critical to discuss the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and its role in promoting East Coast snowstorms. The NAO is calculated based on the pressure difference between Iceland and the Azores Islands. A neutral or +NAO is often more common, given that high pressure often resides over the Azores with low pressure over Iceland and Greenland. However, a -NAO features a reversal of this pattern (high pressure over Greenland/Iceland and low pressure near the Azores). One of the most important players for mid-Atlantic and Northeast snowstorms is for this "blocking high pressure system" to develop, resulting in a -NAO. However, the presence of a -NAO in and of itself doesn't necessarily mean that a Northeast US snowstorm is a "lock." It is very important to look at where the -NAO is based.. is the center of the blocking high over Iceland/eastern Greenland (east-based -NAO) or to the west of Greenland (west-based -NAO)? An east-based -NAO does little to promote big, East-Coast snowstorms since low pressure systems won't feel the influence of the blocking high until they reach northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes. East-based -NAO patterns often result in storms tracking from the Midwest into the eastern Great Lakes or interior Northeast, leaving the mid-Atlantic and much of southern New England on the warm and rainy side of the system. A west-based -NAO, on the other hand, is much more conducive for big storms since systems feel its influence sooner and tend to track farther south across the U.S, slowing down upon arrival to the mid-Atlantic coast. In this case, the NAO is currently positive but will slide into its negative phase by the early to middle part of next week. However, it'll be an east-based -NAO, and the blocking high won't reach its maximum intensity until Wednesday or Thursday. So, why didn't I jump on the "hype train" earlier in the week when some computer models were showing a major nor'easter with flooding rain and heavy snow in parts of the Northeast? First, as I already mentioned, climatology simply doesn't support it. More importantly, these computer models were showing the same NAO evolution earlier this week that they're still showing currently.. but were somehow suggesting a historic storm for the Northeast. I always look at the large-scale pattern and ask myself if what the models are showing is reasonable in relation to the state of that pattern. Instead of assuming the models are right, I ask myself where they may be going wrong. In this case, the "historic nor'easter" idea simply didn't align with the state of the pattern in the North Atlantic, let alone the pattern in the western U.S. and Pacific Ocean (which isn't at all conducive for early-season snow).

Pylons took on a new identity when the "Pylon Cam" was introduced - manufacturer had to step up the game with extra heavy duty pylon materials.

You might be surprised by what I'm willing to tell my wife... This is what I mutter under my breath driving home after dealing with people for 9 hours.

No, please don't be sorry. Customer service is number #1 priority no matter who's providing said service.