Itstrainingtime

It's a clipper with a lousy trajectory to produce anything more than flurries or very light snow southeast of the mountains. Every time...

There's fairly good agreement that a vigorous disturbance will drop southward through the central US into the Southeast from Thursday into Friday. However, the same issues (progressive pattern/lack of blocking) that prevented last night's storm from intensifying and making the turn up the East Coast may very well be present again on the 28th-29th. As is typical in 2nd-year La Nina winters, the northern branch of the jet stream continues to be much more dominant and energetic than the southern branch. There's also been a large distance between disturbances in the northern and southern branch, making it more difficult for them to merge (or "phase") with one another. The only time this has truly happened this winter was on January 16-17, so the odds are against it occurring again so soon. In addition, there's really no indication that the southern branch of the jet stream will be active next weekend, making it essential for the northern branch disturbance to quickly and rapidly intensify. Given that the ridge axis in the West will likely be several hundred miles to the east of Boise, Idaho, rapid intensification is unlikely until it's "too late in the game," meaning that I'm currently favoring a "miss" here in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Traditionally, northern-branch storm systems take longer to intensify that what's suggested many days in advance, especially in the midst of a progressive weather pattern. The large-scale pattern, despite what individual runs of computer models might suggest, simply doesn't appear like it'll be aligned right for there to be a significant snowfall in the mid-Atlantic next weekend. - MU's Directory of Meteorology's perspective for next weekend.

I thought the GFS looked...interesting. How much will I lose from that amount during the next hour?

8 was the low, already up to 17.

That's exactly what it was.

Down to 12 here.

Also...what's going on with the bitterly cold temps for tonight? At 7pm I was at 15. Nearly 3 hours later, it's 18.

Thank god I made a last minute switch earlier this week and went to Philly on Wednesday and sold tonight's tickets. What a horrific loss. Only Philly can pull that off.

Exactly. It'll be days before any details become clear even if there is indeed a storm - but various models are picking up on the powderkeg waiting to be detonated...

Canadian nooner looks like it'll please @TimB84 - looks farther inland and primed to wallop the 'Burgh.

The clipper that came on Tuesday after the Blizzard on Sunday in 96 prompted me to write a letter to the mets at Weather World. My question was answered by Sam Perugini who was an on-air met at the time. I still have his letter to me safely inside my college Meteorology textbook. @Birdbean- that 6 to 8 hour thump you're referring to - that came with the coastal that Friday. I had to drive to York that morning and it took me nearly 2 hours to get from the Mt. Zion Road exit back to the Centerville. I measured 11" from that storm and it all fell in just about 6-7 hours. That was a very heavy wet snow that tapered off to drizzle in the afternoon hours.

The Blizzard of 96 primarily fell on a Sunday into Monday morning. On Tuesday, a clipper raced through- I measured 2" in Centerville but areas south of here in MD had up to 6-8". Finally, a coastal delivered 11" here that Friday. I have all of this written out in great detail. The following week brought a massive rainfall combined with temperatures in the 50s to completely obliterate what was still a 2' snowpack in the matter of 8-10 hours. By Saturday the main stem Susquehanna was way out of its banks.

Wait...you're at 37? I'm at 29.8

The arctic front was slower moving through, which means that the front won't move as far south as originally thought, which means the Saturday storm will end up much farther NW than modeled resulting in snow here. And that...is my all out weenie wishcast post of the year. Actually, it does look like the next storm is coming farther NW. Problem is, we needed a 600 mile adjustment, which is just a WEE bit much 36 hours out. LOL

Holy cow, what a beast on the GFS at day #9 - yeah, fantasy land an all of that, but if the pattern is going to break down as advertised, that would be the way to do it. If this verified - I'd call it a winter:

Just saw this - at my casa just down the road from Etown, same story. Moderately heavy snow and 31. Last year, you seemed to do much better than I did. I remember posts including pics of your snowy landscape while I was staring at my dead grass. Sure seems like things have switched this winter.

Just got into the office after a late night in Philly - 2 different worlds in a 12 mile drive. Home - snow, 31 degrees and everything is covered. Snow on snow in my back yard. Roads were a mess. Work - Snow/rain mix, wet roads, nothing to see here yet. In between - very little evidence of snow south of Chickies. Different world north of the hill.

It took a superlative effort from Joel for them to win. 50 points in 27 minutes. That's sick.

Remarkable difference- I'm at 38.4!

Paging @Atomixwx - yours truly will be in the house tonight for the 76ers-Magic tilt...

You said that a little more eloquently than I did above your post.

Problem is, with every model run the frontal boundary continues to press farther and farther south tonight. This results in wave going farther south, and if it keeps trending that way we might not see much of anything.

Weekend unfortunately is falling by the beachside. Yesterday, the LSV was in the bullseye for tomorrow. That has shifted south into northern MD. Still time for a bump north. More chances coming next week.

Haven't I seen that map recently?...