Itstrainingtime

This is the best Americanwx reaction to a great Euro run I've ever seen:

My god, your analogy gets better and better!

Great analogy...both are in the house and neither are interested in actually playing.

Exactly!

EURO = 76ers. So much promise, so much reputation. So little reward.

Could very well be, but in a pattern like this we can't say 4 days out from any threat whether it'll be a hit or a miss. We didn't have tomorrow night on our radar until early yesterday.

37 here with rapidly dwindling white. My low overnight was only 32 though.

That's only after what is likely 3 chances for snow - tomorrow night (I didn't copy over his post about that), this weekend, and then next weekend. Let's get through 3 chances for snow and worry about February in...February.

I'll say this - the GFS has been on a roll this winter, but it's been largely dominated by northern stream energy. This weekend is mostly southern stream, which the GFS typically has had a SE bias. Also, the southern stream is the Euro's "strength." (this is from a met discussion I read this morning, this isn't my personal nonsense) Anyway, the GFS is incrementally getting closer - I still feel good that we'll get "something". Might not be the huge totals the Euro had yesterday but I think some snow is on the table.

See my post above - Elliott thinks we're getting snow this weekend. And perhaps an even bigger one to follow.

MU Met is not about suppression this weekend: As I mentioned on Saturday, I'm keeping a close eye on Friday and Saturday (Jan. 21-22) for a potentially significant winter storm somewhere in the mid-Atlantic. Details remain nebulous at this distance, and there's a wide range of potential solutions at this time. Anything from an out-to-sea solution to a major snowstorm or another snow-to-rain event is currently on the table. However, I always like to look at these smaller-scale systems from a broader perspective and ask, "What does the large-scale pattern suggest?" In this case, the ridge axis in the West that I so often refer to is still modeled to be right along or just offshore of the West Coast. At the same time, the large-scale, downstream trough axis (or bottom of the dip in the jet stream) will likely be over the Mississippi or western Ohio Valley. This is not too dissimilar from the large-scale setup that was present over the last few days, making me highly skeptical an out-to-sea outcome. Now, there are going to be several disturbances (associated with the southern branch of the jet stream) that come onshore into Southern California over the next 24-48 hours. At the same time, energy associated with the northern branch of the jet stream will dive down into the northern Plains. This is what meteorologists refer to as a "split flow" jet stream pattern, and these are notoriously difficult to predict more than a few days in advance. The two branches of the jet stream often converge across eastern parts of the US in these types of patterns, and just where, when, and how these two branches interact can mean the different between a major winter storm and nothing at all! Trying to sort out which disturbances are going to interact with one another and in what fashion is challenging, to say the least, more than a few days in advance. So, my point is that, while I currently do favor a solution that results in at least some snow across the Lower Susquehanna Valley and northern Maryland late Friday into Saturday, we're still only talking about "potential." A lot can change in the next 2-3 days, and I certainly wouldn't bet money on any particular outcome! What we will likely have going for us this go around is a cold, Canadian high pressure system centered across northern New England instead of hundreds of miles offshore. This means that north-to-northeasterly winds would be able to funnel cold air down into the Commonwealth before the storm arrives and keep it "locked in" during the event. In last night's case, southeasterly flow off the Atlantic Ocean routed the cold air mass in place and caused precipitation to change over to a wintry mix and rain. At least at this distance, it doesn't appear that we'll have to contend with the same issue on Friday and Saturday. Details will become more clear over the next 2-3 days, so follow @MUweather on Twitter for my latest thoughts and frequent updates! I'll end by re-emphasizing a point I made on Saturday. Toward the last day or two of January and the first few days of February, our cold, wintry pattern may begin to slowly shift back toward what we saw in December. It sometimes takes a major storm to bring about these pattern changes, so I wouldn't be surprised if there's another storm threat sometime between January 29 (the day I turn the "big 3-0" -- yikes!) and February 1. But, this is just speculation at this point.. so let's deal with one storm at a time and the rest of the chaos sort

If the GFS and others don't make a move with the weekend system at 12z, my storm will be on life support. Right now it's on...life support. Still think the setup could provide southerners with a moderate snowfall.

I've got about 1.5" here. It'll disappear tomorrow for sure.

Bring it home. I hate setups like this because I feel like the models won't have a handle on something this delicate. Too much can go wrong. Saying that, I fully expect some areas will get a nice, small event. Problem is...too many people won't.

Fair enough, I had no idea there was that much of a discrepancy. You caught me off guard because you're usually positive and I'm the one throwing the less-rosy posts around.

You just made the best decision on these forums yet.

Perspective I guess, but I'm running ahead of climo for snowfall to date. Agree that it doesn't really feel like it.

Yes, it was slick on my drive to work but bone dry on my way home.

Your drive to Mount Joy should be just fine. Only roads with issues are developments.

Well, if it's the clueless NAM it can't be right...right?

LOL

I did not notice that about Jeb, hopefully he's okay. He certainly brings...passion to the boards. He's Blizz on steroids. LOL My road was a slushy quagmire early this morning. 12 hours later, it's an ever so slightly less slushy quagmire.

That's exactly why I stopped at 30". More than enough snow, hopefully resulting in minimal or no damage.

First week of January Temps below 20 at onset and throughout the duration of the storm Instant stickage to all surfaces immediately 30" of snow with a layer of sleet mixed in on the surface Temps in the teens by day, zero or below at night for at least the following 3-5 days Minimal drifting - drifting leaves too many open areas exposed that quickly become green even when it's cold

Just seeing this...what a day at work. We are missing a TON of people due to illness. In my mind, and I'm an overthinker - amounts are a good starting point for sure, but it's only part of my consideration. For example, 8" of wind-driven snow is different than 8" of mid-March paste that is largely gone in 4 hours. So sometimes smaller amounts seem more significant to me than larger amounts do at other times. I like everyone's input - really, it is our own personal perception. Only thing I'd add to each list is the BECS criteria. For me, that's anything greater than 36". I say this because LNS has never had a storm that large, so that would be of biblical proportions to me.