Itstrainingtime

Have a great snow chase!

I think accumulating snow from the coastal makes it to the pinkish line.

Dear god New England just got destroyed by the NAM. What a dream run for them.

"Pretty good" is an understatement. Comparing his maps (not just clarity, but accuracy) to DT is night and day better - I fully expect the 0" that he's predicting for me. DT has the 4" line halfway through Lanco? Don't see that happening.

Very encouraging - some thought that this weekend was our last great chance of the season. Certainly appears that we have more opportunities ahead. That'll lesson the sting of watching VA Beach triple our seasonal total this weekend.

First time I heard that was Christmas Eve, 2010. That's when every model known to mankind suddenly jumped several hundred miles west with the Boxing Day storm. People were going nuts and calling out the NWS, who I believe responded with the Convective Feedback issue. Unfortunately for us, those models that all came back west, came about 75 miles too far west, and that was what did us in locally.

2 things on the GFS: At least the 3rd run in a row that it nudged west. We need some bigger nudges soon. GFS also has that double barrel low feature out in the Atlantic. Read some discussion on convective feedback issues - not sure what it means if it will mean anything at all. Just noting what I saw.

If you take this map that Blizz posted, erode the western edge of precip by about 50 miles, and that would get snow most likely to the Philly metro area, which seems to be in line with what Mt. Holly is thinking right now. Wouldn't be surprised if PHL picks up about 2" while Cape May gets to 10".

9.1 here now.

There was a time that this would get me interested. I refuse to fall for this now.

The flow and lack of block were/are killers. Ironically, the ridge is positioned pretty close to where we want it - but your previous 2 points overcame that.

Trying to read and interpret this - what forecasters have been way off? The only one that I've posted discussion from has clearly said since last weekend that this was NOT going to be storm for us. The chances of getting snow from the coastal were always low...for reasons that many on here talked about. Also, given how many moving pieces there are flying around, models aren't going to lock into a set outcome days and days in advance. I won't speak for anyone but me, but at no point did I "expect" to get anything from the coastal storm. I haven't heard or read any met (worth their salt) predict a significant snowstorm in our area. Not saying it hasn't happened, but the ones I follow have been downplaying this from day #1 and haven't wavered one bit.

You're the LSV jackpot on the 18z GFS. LOL

Zoom it in a little to show how blessed we are east of the river:

I was having fun and not fully expecting that to be the final chapter of the story. Wasn't it the Ukie that's been consistently a fish storm to this point?

...and just like that, the weenies in Hampton Roads and NE North Carolina have awakened again!

To that point... @canderson - time to move your weekend plans to Cape Hatteras, my friend:

I enjoyed both iterations of said word. LOL

Thanks for that. Makes sense.

See, that's my point. We've had 2 storms this season that really had the potential to deliver significant snowfall. Granted, the second of these 2 hasn't occurred yet, but assuming that it does miss, both times it was the Euro who suckered us in only to cave to the GFS with a final sucker punch finale.

My post was a personal observation not based on any data, so there's that for sure. But...which model has disappointed this subforum the most this winter season? It's the Euro and it isn't close.

Very true.

At this point it's fair to say (I think) that the GFS > Euro. Not sure 3 years ago I'd ever believe that...

Euro holding that energy back in the SW. Not a good thing I think. This is likely going to go the way of other guidance.

In the past decade? Pretty sure just one as well. (2016) You'd have to go back an extra year or two to 2009-10 when they had a couple more.