Itstrainingtime

This type of gradient is common for these storms: (and typically, the ground truth ends up about 50 miles east of what is showing on these maps)

You know how I feel about those colorful maps and all...but you gotta check out the NAM's snow map. NW tip of Lanco gets < 1" while the SE corner is approaching 10".

Kyle Elliott posted a fantastic discussion last evening on the weekend storm. Holy crap does that guy go into detail! It must take him an hour or two just to write his discussions. Anyway, it's too long to post here but I recommend checking it out here: https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php

Funny you mentioned this, I got home last night around 11:30 and was reading the ESPN app while getting prepared for today. Right after I read about the goings-on in the Association last evening, I came on here and saw your post. Give the Clippers some props for not folding the tent, especially on the road.

I just saw that Kyle is comparing this to the boxing day storm. I literally said the same thing this morning. Right now he's thinking 1-3" locally.

Ji would always pull that out back in the day when it was the only model left that gave him what he wanted. LOL

Says the guy who's had snow the past 37 days in a row. Heading for South Philly soon!

Wait...are you saying that your hot air is a result of Trixie?

Need those purples to keep moving west.

12z Euro with a 3' snowstorm for OCMD.

LOL, I'm sorry...bad choice of wording on my part! "East is better" = living in the EASTERN part of PA will give us a better chance of getting snow from the coastal than areas west of us. Hopefully that makes more sense now.

Just a note that it's snowing outside the trainer's window right now. 35 degrees approaching the noon hour.

I'm tracking. I'm actually more fully invested than normal, but time is not kind to me posting much these days. One thing I'll add to the discussion - regarding the coastal, east is better than west. My caution; and this is being said to me as well as to the rest, is that we do NOT want to be on the western periphery of the snow maps. History has shown that riding the edge leads to heartache. For those of us east of the river, we'll want to see good snows extend well west of us to feel confident - again, this is specific to the coastal and pinning hopes with that. I do think that chances of some snow is becoming more likely regardless of that, though.

You nailed it. Very well stated...every word.

That map is painful - it looks almost EXACTLY like the Boxing day Blizzard in 2010. In fact, Lancaster was projected to get 3-6" from that storm, but most areas of the county were left with flurries while NYC's suburbs had over 30" of wind-driven snow. If someone has a map from that storm and can post it beside the image above...the similarities would be striking.

18z GFS's solution illustrates one of many things that can go wrong. Progressive...

Show off. Well, enjoy your slush in April while I'm working in my garden.

I didn't think we were supposed to see anything. It's mainly cloudy here, but the sky doesn't look like it did yesterday. (it doesn't look like snow)

Man I sure hope so, but it's Monday and there is a LOT that can go wrong with this setup. This is particularly fragile and could break a lot of weenie hearts. Trends today have been good but it's too early to say with any confidence that we're looking good.

Might want to rename it to someone else - actually, my storm is the one that produced snow at my casa... ...The casa that I rent on OBX. My storm was the one that slid off the southeast coast this past Friday night.

Good deal. Nada here. (Did pick up the lightest of dustings around 3pm)

It's a clipper with a lousy trajectory to produce anything more than flurries or very light snow southeast of the mountains. Every time...

There's fairly good agreement that a vigorous disturbance will drop southward through the central US into the Southeast from Thursday into Friday. However, the same issues (progressive pattern/lack of blocking) that prevented last night's storm from intensifying and making the turn up the East Coast may very well be present again on the 28th-29th. As is typical in 2nd-year La Nina winters, the northern branch of the jet stream continues to be much more dominant and energetic than the southern branch. There's also been a large distance between disturbances in the northern and southern branch, making it more difficult for them to merge (or "phase") with one another. The only time this has truly happened this winter was on January 16-17, so the odds are against it occurring again so soon. In addition, there's really no indication that the southern branch of the jet stream will be active next weekend, making it essential for the northern branch disturbance to quickly and rapidly intensify. Given that the ridge axis in the West will likely be several hundred miles to the east of Boise, Idaho, rapid intensification is unlikely until it's "too late in the game," meaning that I'm currently favoring a "miss" here in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Traditionally, northern-branch storm systems take longer to intensify that what's suggested many days in advance, especially in the midst of a progressive weather pattern. The large-scale pattern, despite what individual runs of computer models might suggest, simply doesn't appear like it'll be aligned right for there to be a significant snowfall in the mid-Atlantic next weekend. - MU's Directory of Meteorology's perspective for next weekend.

I thought the GFS looked...interesting. How much will I lose from that amount during the next hour?