Itstrainingtime

CMC brings the low up over Rouzerville:

Sure is - (geek moment here...I spend probably more time than I should watching James Spann videos.) His Tornado coverage is legendary and then for him to have March 93 to experience was amazing. He is top #3 on my all-time list.

I remember watching James Spann live from Birmingham on Friday night (night before our impact) and he had a comrade were outside the station and it was surreal...they got 13" of snow in area that hardly sees anything. It was blowing and drifting like it does around here at times. Cool stuff for sure.

I know that the overwhelming majority of people like them. I certainly respect and appreciate that on several levels, and it's not something for me to get worked up over and cause unnecessary friction. Thank you for understanding and sharing that.

Great info, I love talking about that winter. One thing I remember fairly well is there wasn't a huge disparity in the overnight lows. I also recorded -22, and I think that most stations in the area were all within a degree or two of that mark. That, and the incredible lasting power of the snow/ice glacier that seemed to never go away. For weeks my neighborhood (I lived in Centerville at the time) was nothing but 2 deep ruts sandwiched around a deep ice pack. As long as you stayed in the ruts you were okay, but when you went up onto the pack it threw you around pretty good!

Did you intentionally say this to goad me? No, I definitely do not love snow maps. I hate 'em, period. I've said this before but never explained why...here's one reason, and I hope you can appreciate where I'm coming from. 72 hours ago there were multiple snow maps that showed our 'hoods with numbers like 21.7", 19.8", and another with 18.8". I know this because...they all ended up in my inbox at work. And they came from a higher pay grade than I am, which in layman's terms means the executive team. Once again, I had to tirelessly start explaining that the maps were highly inaccurate, and why they were. Keep in mind, I work with 950 people, and to my knowledge the only other person here who knows what a GFS, NAM, EURO, CMC, and ICON even are is daxx. When these people get a hold of these maps (from social media) they honestly believe that what they see is coming. Then it's up to me from walking them off the ledge. They're coming to me with staffing questions, potential shift shutdowns, yadayadayada, and it leaves me feeling like I really wish those maps would disappear. We here...we understand. We get it. (at least most of us) We know...well, we just know not to take anything verbatim. Sadly, the world around us does not.

This would be factual information.

Hmm, I thought it looked like a little more than that out your way. Whatever, it's not relevant on Wednesday for a storm coming late Sunday.

Just looped the entire run - low goes from Richmond almost due north to the M/D line and then turns NE directly over our heads and on to Allentown. Allan Huffman (Raleighwx) said that the models are slowing down the storm and that's not a good thing.

Verbatim, on this run, it's still about a foot of snow for the I-81 corridor with amounts a bit more N&W and less S&E.

We want that WAA to come in like it's nobody's business.

Thump looks pretty stout though!

Not the best look. I think we want this to come in faster.

Fair questions and valid points. I guess what I'm looking for is what will cause the ridge axis to shift into a favorable position?

The Euro used to follow the Ukie (and vice versa) but not sure that's accurate any longer. Ukie did come west today at 12z.

Triple 3's here at the moment - 33.3

So the question becomes - will the pattern support an adjustment east with the LP?

In terms of science, a ridge axis positioned where it's projected to be will be a rainer in the LSV. (after an initial thump) That's what the met said.

See my last post - a pretty good met from MU is in your camp.

Great, albeit lengthy writeup by Kyle Elliott at MU last night. Essentially, he believes the most likely scenario is pretty much what the GFS is showing...the ridge axis out west looks to set up to the west of Boise, Idaho. For the LSV to get a major snowstorm we'd want the ridge axis set up to the east of Boise. This would allow the low to plow northward through PA and bury the Appalachians. So, he's giving the GFS full props at this point. On terms of percentages, this is where he's at: Track through CPA: 45% Track up the coast: 30% Southern slider/out to sea: 25% He emphasized (obviously) that there are a ton of moving parts and things can/may change quickly and significantly; HOWEVER, he believes that the pattern supports the storm heading up through PA.

Thanks, and to your last sentence, hence my overall disappointment. As you know, I love weather extremes and I'm all in for bomb cyclone.

Question I'll throw out to anyone more knowledgeable than I am - a subtle change I've noticed since the 12z runs yesterday is an overall slight weakening of the surface low on some of the models. At first, I was disappointed to see that. However, and I know that the overall track matters more, but would a more wound up low also introduce more mixing issues than a weaker low? Or does that not matter at all.

Well said, and well timed. Great post.

Thanks for getting it.

A little less than half were "direct" hits and the ones that were not hits were mainly due to suppression.