Itstrainingtime

The arctic front was slower moving through, which means that the front won't move as far south as originally thought, which means the Saturday storm will end up much farther NW than modeled resulting in snow here. And that...is my all out weenie wishcast post of the year. Actually, it does look like the next storm is coming farther NW. Problem is, we needed a 600 mile adjustment, which is just a WEE bit much 36 hours out. LOL

Holy cow, what a beast on the GFS at day #9 - yeah, fantasy land an all of that, but if the pattern is going to break down as advertised, that would be the way to do it. If this verified - I'd call it a winter:

Just saw this - at my casa just down the road from Etown, same story. Moderately heavy snow and 31. Last year, you seemed to do much better than I did. I remember posts including pics of your snowy landscape while I was staring at my dead grass. Sure seems like things have switched this winter.

Just got into the office after a late night in Philly - 2 different worlds in a 12 mile drive. Home - snow, 31 degrees and everything is covered. Snow on snow in my back yard. Roads were a mess. Work - Snow/rain mix, wet roads, nothing to see here yet. In between - very little evidence of snow south of Chickies. Different world north of the hill.

It took a superlative effort from Joel for them to win. 50 points in 27 minutes. That's sick.

Remarkable difference- I'm at 38.4!

Paging @Atomixwx - yours truly will be in the house tonight for the 76ers-Magic tilt...

You said that a little more eloquently than I did above your post.

Problem is, with every model run the frontal boundary continues to press farther and farther south tonight. This results in wave going farther south, and if it keeps trending that way we might not see much of anything.

Weekend unfortunately is falling by the beachside. Yesterday, the LSV was in the bullseye for tomorrow. That has shifted south into northern MD. Still time for a bump north. More chances coming next week.

Haven't I seen that map recently?...

I've read from at least 5-6 mets that as the strength of Thursday morning's wave continues to increase, it in turn is having a negative impact on the weekend event. Hopefully the narrow ribbon of goods early Thursday jackpots our forum because if we're on the outside looking in with that wave, it might very well be 0-2 around here soon.

I really do as well. I'm very optimistic. Doesn't mean we'll get anything but I think we will.

Interesting question! A LOT of winter forecasts that I read from mets back in the fall said that this winter would be full of nickel and dimes and would be absent of bigger storms. This is what I've been expecting all along.

This is the best Americanwx reaction to a great Euro run I've ever seen:

My god, your analogy gets better and better!

Great analogy...both are in the house and neither are interested in actually playing.

Exactly!

EURO = 76ers. So much promise, so much reputation. So little reward.

Could very well be, but in a pattern like this we can't say 4 days out from any threat whether it'll be a hit or a miss. We didn't have tomorrow night on our radar until early yesterday.

37 here with rapidly dwindling white. My low overnight was only 32 though.

That's only after what is likely 3 chances for snow - tomorrow night (I didn't copy over his post about that), this weekend, and then next weekend. Let's get through 3 chances for snow and worry about February in...February.

I'll say this - the GFS has been on a roll this winter, but it's been largely dominated by northern stream energy. This weekend is mostly southern stream, which the GFS typically has had a SE bias. Also, the southern stream is the Euro's "strength." (this is from a met discussion I read this morning, this isn't my personal nonsense) Anyway, the GFS is incrementally getting closer - I still feel good that we'll get "something". Might not be the huge totals the Euro had yesterday but I think some snow is on the table.

See my post above - Elliott thinks we're getting snow this weekend. And perhaps an even bigger one to follow.

MU Met is not about suppression this weekend: As I mentioned on Saturday, I'm keeping a close eye on Friday and Saturday (Jan. 21-22) for a potentially significant winter storm somewhere in the mid-Atlantic. Details remain nebulous at this distance, and there's a wide range of potential solutions at this time. Anything from an out-to-sea solution to a major snowstorm or another snow-to-rain event is currently on the table. However, I always like to look at these smaller-scale systems from a broader perspective and ask, "What does the large-scale pattern suggest?" In this case, the ridge axis in the West that I so often refer to is still modeled to be right along or just offshore of the West Coast. At the same time, the large-scale, downstream trough axis (or bottom of the dip in the jet stream) will likely be over the Mississippi or western Ohio Valley. This is not too dissimilar from the large-scale setup that was present over the last few days, making me highly skeptical an out-to-sea outcome. Now, there are going to be several disturbances (associated with the southern branch of the jet stream) that come onshore into Southern California over the next 24-48 hours. At the same time, energy associated with the northern branch of the jet stream will dive down into the northern Plains. This is what meteorologists refer to as a "split flow" jet stream pattern, and these are notoriously difficult to predict more than a few days in advance. The two branches of the jet stream often converge across eastern parts of the US in these types of patterns, and just where, when, and how these two branches interact can mean the different between a major winter storm and nothing at all! Trying to sort out which disturbances are going to interact with one another and in what fashion is challenging, to say the least, more than a few days in advance. So, my point is that, while I currently do favor a solution that results in at least some snow across the Lower Susquehanna Valley and northern Maryland late Friday into Saturday, we're still only talking about "potential." A lot can change in the next 2-3 days, and I certainly wouldn't bet money on any particular outcome! What we will likely have going for us this go around is a cold, Canadian high pressure system centered across northern New England instead of hundreds of miles offshore. This means that north-to-northeasterly winds would be able to funnel cold air down into the Commonwealth before the storm arrives and keep it "locked in" during the event. In last night's case, southeasterly flow off the Atlantic Ocean routed the cold air mass in place and caused precipitation to change over to a wintry mix and rain. At least at this distance, it doesn't appear that we'll have to contend with the same issue on Friday and Saturday. Details will become more clear over the next 2-3 days, so follow @MUweather on Twitter for my latest thoughts and frequent updates! I'll end by re-emphasizing a point I made on Saturday. Toward the last day or two of January and the first few days of February, our cold, wintry pattern may begin to slowly shift back toward what we saw in December. It sometimes takes a major storm to bring about these pattern changes, so I wouldn't be surprised if there's another storm threat sometime between January 29 (the day I turn the "big 3-0" -- yikes!) and February 1. But, this is just speculation at this point.. so let's deal with one storm at a time and the rest of the chaos sort