Itstrainingtime

LOL, I'm sorry...bad choice of wording on my part! "East is better" = living in the EASTERN part of PA will give us a better chance of getting snow from the coastal than areas west of us. Hopefully that makes more sense now.

Just a note that it's snowing outside the trainer's window right now. 35 degrees approaching the noon hour.

I'm tracking. I'm actually more fully invested than normal, but time is not kind to me posting much these days. One thing I'll add to the discussion - regarding the coastal, east is better than west. My caution; and this is being said to me as well as to the rest, is that we do NOT want to be on the western periphery of the snow maps. History has shown that riding the edge leads to heartache. For those of us east of the river, we'll want to see good snows extend well west of us to feel confident - again, this is specific to the coastal and pinning hopes with that. I do think that chances of some snow is becoming more likely regardless of that, though.

You nailed it. Very well stated...every word.

That map is painful - it looks almost EXACTLY like the Boxing day Blizzard in 2010. In fact, Lancaster was projected to get 3-6" from that storm, but most areas of the county were left with flurries while NYC's suburbs had over 30" of wind-driven snow. If someone has a map from that storm and can post it beside the image above...the similarities would be striking.

18z GFS's solution illustrates one of many things that can go wrong. Progressive...

Show off. Well, enjoy your slush in April while I'm working in my garden.

I didn't think we were supposed to see anything. It's mainly cloudy here, but the sky doesn't look like it did yesterday. (it doesn't look like snow)

Man I sure hope so, but it's Monday and there is a LOT that can go wrong with this setup. This is particularly fragile and could break a lot of weenie hearts. Trends today have been good but it's too early to say with any confidence that we're looking good.

Might want to rename it to someone else - actually, my storm is the one that produced snow at my casa... ...The casa that I rent on OBX. My storm was the one that slid off the southeast coast this past Friday night.

Good deal. Nada here. (Did pick up the lightest of dustings around 3pm)

It's a clipper with a lousy trajectory to produce anything more than flurries or very light snow southeast of the mountains. Every time...

There's fairly good agreement that a vigorous disturbance will drop southward through the central US into the Southeast from Thursday into Friday. However, the same issues (progressive pattern/lack of blocking) that prevented last night's storm from intensifying and making the turn up the East Coast may very well be present again on the 28th-29th. As is typical in 2nd-year La Nina winters, the northern branch of the jet stream continues to be much more dominant and energetic than the southern branch. There's also been a large distance between disturbances in the northern and southern branch, making it more difficult for them to merge (or "phase") with one another. The only time this has truly happened this winter was on January 16-17, so the odds are against it occurring again so soon. In addition, there's really no indication that the southern branch of the jet stream will be active next weekend, making it essential for the northern branch disturbance to quickly and rapidly intensify. Given that the ridge axis in the West will likely be several hundred miles to the east of Boise, Idaho, rapid intensification is unlikely until it's "too late in the game," meaning that I'm currently favoring a "miss" here in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Traditionally, northern-branch storm systems take longer to intensify that what's suggested many days in advance, especially in the midst of a progressive weather pattern. The large-scale pattern, despite what individual runs of computer models might suggest, simply doesn't appear like it'll be aligned right for there to be a significant snowfall in the mid-Atlantic next weekend. - MU's Directory of Meteorology's perspective for next weekend.

I thought the GFS looked...interesting. How much will I lose from that amount during the next hour?

8 was the low, already up to 17.

That's exactly what it was.

Down to 12 here.

Also...what's going on with the bitterly cold temps for tonight? At 7pm I was at 15. Nearly 3 hours later, it's 18.

Thank god I made a last minute switch earlier this week and went to Philly on Wednesday and sold tonight's tickets. What a horrific loss. Only Philly can pull that off.

Exactly. It'll be days before any details become clear even if there is indeed a storm - but various models are picking up on the powderkeg waiting to be detonated...

Canadian nooner looks like it'll please @TimB84 - looks farther inland and primed to wallop the 'Burgh.

The clipper that came on Tuesday after the Blizzard on Sunday in 96 prompted me to write a letter to the mets at Weather World. My question was answered by Sam Perugini who was an on-air met at the time. I still have his letter to me safely inside my college Meteorology textbook. @Birdbean- that 6 to 8 hour thump you're referring to - that came with the coastal that Friday. I had to drive to York that morning and it took me nearly 2 hours to get from the Mt. Zion Road exit back to the Centerville. I measured 11" from that storm and it all fell in just about 6-7 hours. That was a very heavy wet snow that tapered off to drizzle in the afternoon hours.

The Blizzard of 96 primarily fell on a Sunday into Monday morning. On Tuesday, a clipper raced through- I measured 2" in Centerville but areas south of here in MD had up to 6-8". Finally, a coastal delivered 11" here that Friday. I have all of this written out in great detail. The following week brought a massive rainfall combined with temperatures in the 50s to completely obliterate what was still a 2' snowpack in the matter of 8-10 hours. By Saturday the main stem Susquehanna was way out of its banks.

Wait...you're at 37? I'm at 29.8