Itstrainingtime

Looks like our neighboring subforums north and south of us have punted the weekend. Sorta surprising.

MU take the weekend system further: As far as snow, the potential exists for another winter storm this Friday night into Saturday. Details are highly uncertain and impossible to finesse at this distance, but odds favor another "light-to-moderate event" across northern MD, southeastern PA and the Lower Susquehanna Valley. There are three pieces of energy involved in the setup that need to interact, or "phase," at the right place and time for a major storm to develop along the Eastern Seaboard. The likelihood of this occurring is very low, especially with the ridge axis over the Intermountain West oriented from southwest-to-northeast on Friday. Strong, northwesterly flow to the east of the ridge will tend to shunt the system out-to-sea on Saturday and rip the upper-level energy within the Jet Stream's southern branch apart. As a result, the system won't be able to intensify or "make the turn" up the East Coast due to the unfavorable wind flow pattern across the nation (see below). Typically, ridge axes oriented in a north-south fashion are present over the western U.S. during major, East Coast snowstorms. The flow around these ridges allows troughs/storm systems to deepen in the Gulf of Mexico and along the East Coast. Essentially, northerly flow out of Canada pushes Arctic air into the base of the trough, while southerly flow from the Gulf and western Atlantic causes the Jet Stream to bulge northward ahead of the surface low pressure system. As a result, the east-west temperature gradient strengthens, causing the trough to deepen and surface low to intensify. In this case, there will be less contrast in the wind direction ahead of vs. behind the trough (i.e. west-southwesterly vs. northwesterly), so the east-west temperature gradient won't change that much. Thus, I expect a relatively weak area of low pressure to move east-northeastward along the U.S. Gulf Coast from Thursday night into Friday before ultimately exiting the Carolina coastline Saturday morning. What does that mean for our region? Well, I currently anticipate a 6- to perhaps 12-hour period of generally light-to-moderate snow later Friday evening into Saturday morning. Once again, this will be an all-snow event from the I-95 corridor points north and west, and snow-to-liquid ratios should be on the order of 12-15:1 with temperatures in the 20s. Roadways will quickly turn snow-packed and slippery, but at least this system will come on a weekend and be less impactful to many people. Behind the storm, skies should partially clear Saturday afternoon, and northwesterly winds of 12-25 mph will likely accompany highs in the low 30s. A bubble of high pressure should then settle into the central Appalachians and southern mid-Atlantic States from Sunday into Monday, so there will likely be a one- or two-day reprieve from the gusty winds and frigid air. Instead, partial sunshine and light winds should accompany highs in the mid 30s both Sunday and Monday afternoons, allowing snow and slush to melt off roadways. Don't get used to it, though. As mentioned above, another reinforcing shot of frigid air is "waiting in the wings" and will arrive by the middle of next week. Warm-weather lovers like myself have nothing to be happy about or look forward to for awhile.. ☹️ -- Elliott

I honestly (selfishly?) thought that I had the best screen name on this entire board. "Itstrainingtime" incorporates 3 of my biggest passions in life: 1) Helping others grow professionally, 2) My love for all things steam trains, and 3) training storms during the summer. If I say so myself, I thought it was super clever. But...but you have me beat. I fully concede. There is no one on this board with a more appropriate name than you have. Given 99% of your posts...well, your name says it all.

12z Canadians say "we'll keep those parts pretty far SE of PA", thank you.

MU Weather Center @MUweather With regard to the Fri night-Sat #snowstorm potential, it's way too early to finesse details or throw out #'s. Snow maps created before Wed PM or Thurs AM shouldn't be taken seriously & are subject to big changes! Many moving pieces need to interact perfectly for a major storm..

They're under a Winter Storm Watch and the best part of it is the official forecast: (this is quite clearly the rage of this winter!) Wednesday Night A 20 percent chance of snow showers after midnight. Increasing clouds, with a low around 28. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Thursday Snow showers likely, possibly mixed with sleet before noon, then snow showers. High near 35. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Thursday Night Snow showers. Low around 29. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday A 20 percent chance of snow showers before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. North northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

The battle of the winds war is on! NWS has slightly less winds tomorrow than today and even calmer on Thursday...MU, however, is channeling his inner Lee Corso (#notsofast) Edit: CTP does have Thursday being the windiest day. Apologies. MU Weather Center @MUweather NW wind gusts will reach 35 mph tomorrow & 40-45 mph Thurs. Highs will be around 10°F below average through the end of the week with overnight lows in the teens & low 20s. Wind chills will be stuck in the single digits & teens until Fri PM. Dress in layers, bundle up & #StayWarm!

Low of 20 overnight in Maytown. Nice to both see and feel winter.

2.1" here.

Still snowing at my cousin's in Georgetown DE with 12.5" so far.

Only picked up .1" this evening.

Just got home from an errand. She's getting slick. Big flakes spiraling down.

Flurries just started here. I think radar looks decent for all of us.

Looking ahead to the weekend - Elliott went with 30% POPs for Lanco on Friday night and Saturday. Probably a prudent call at this time and given the guidance.

My favorite beach town looking amazing - love snow at the beach: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lq15dNFXISw

I haven' seen a flake in over 4 hours. Clouds and 28 currently.

My uncle in Lewes measured "about 10" a short time ago. My cousin, who lives inland on Rt. 9 several miles closer to Georgetown DE texted me that he had 11" at his place.

Sun is making an appearance. Temp is up to 29. Snow on road and driveway melting off quickly.

Yep, I'm second-guessing myself now. Lots of my yard is showing.

In fairness, I likely came off too strong. But it does happen with every winter storm. And the vitriol is all about watches/warnings/advisories. Some seem to live or die with what is or isn't issued.

Yeah, this is a good callout.

Ehh...there was at least one other...

I'm curious as well, honestly. On one panel of the GFS the low is positioned where I would often taint with mix, and that usually implies that the QPF shield would extend well back into true Central PA. At least.

CMC with a dramatic shift in a positive way. Has a storm on the coast close enough at this point. GFS has you and me dancing in knee-deep snow. Waist deep to our NE.

Yes indeed. Like so many things in life, we live in what I like to call "The Information Age". This is really a double-edged sword kind of thing...how many times have we ourselves, a loved one, our beloved pet, etc. started to show signs of something that is concerning to us? All the time. And today, we can go online and read just about anything you want to read on said subject, both good, bad and in between. One thing at our disposal is weather models. If we have access, let's read/use them...it only makes sense. And, when tied to our passion they make a great conversation piece. And that in itself is a great thing. Sharing thoughts/opinions with others sharing the same passion connects us in ways that weren't possible years ago. Okay, I'm rambling... My issue is too many people take any information at face value. And there's the issue. On here, we love to criticize (fairly) the internet hypsters who go on Facebook, You Tube and other places and share a bizarre snow map (like the one that showed 50" over New Jersey some time ago) and people eat that shit up like a lemon meringue pie. Why? It's there for them to see. So, it has to be true. And the person who shared it, who almost certainly knows what he/she shared is a crock of loaded doodoo is laughing their way to the bank. The age of information. What a convoluted world we live in...