Itstrainingtime

12z Canadians say "we'll keep those parts pretty far SE of PA", thank you.

MU Weather Center @MUweather With regard to the Fri night-Sat #snowstorm potential, it's way too early to finesse details or throw out #'s. Snow maps created before Wed PM or Thurs AM shouldn't be taken seriously & are subject to big changes! Many moving pieces need to interact perfectly for a major storm..

They're under a Winter Storm Watch and the best part of it is the official forecast: (this is quite clearly the rage of this winter!) Wednesday Night A 20 percent chance of snow showers after midnight. Increasing clouds, with a low around 28. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Thursday Snow showers likely, possibly mixed with sleet before noon, then snow showers. High near 35. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Thursday Night Snow showers. Low around 29. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday A 20 percent chance of snow showers before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. North northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

The battle of the winds war is on! NWS has slightly less winds tomorrow than today and even calmer on Thursday...MU, however, is channeling his inner Lee Corso (#notsofast) Edit: CTP does have Thursday being the windiest day. Apologies. MU Weather Center @MUweather NW wind gusts will reach 35 mph tomorrow & 40-45 mph Thurs. Highs will be around 10°F below average through the end of the week with overnight lows in the teens & low 20s. Wind chills will be stuck in the single digits & teens until Fri PM. Dress in layers, bundle up & #StayWarm!

Low of 20 overnight in Maytown. Nice to both see and feel winter.

2.1" here.

Still snowing at my cousin's in Georgetown DE with 12.5" so far.

Only picked up .1" this evening.

Just got home from an errand. She's getting slick. Big flakes spiraling down.

Flurries just started here. I think radar looks decent for all of us.

Looking ahead to the weekend - Elliott went with 30% POPs for Lanco on Friday night and Saturday. Probably a prudent call at this time and given the guidance.

My favorite beach town looking amazing - love snow at the beach: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lq15dNFXISw

I haven' seen a flake in over 4 hours. Clouds and 28 currently.

My uncle in Lewes measured "about 10" a short time ago. My cousin, who lives inland on Rt. 9 several miles closer to Georgetown DE texted me that he had 11" at his place.

Sun is making an appearance. Temp is up to 29. Snow on road and driveway melting off quickly.

Yep, I'm second-guessing myself now. Lots of my yard is showing.

In fairness, I likely came off too strong. But it does happen with every winter storm. And the vitriol is all about watches/warnings/advisories. Some seem to live or die with what is or isn't issued.

Yeah, this is a good callout.

Ehh...there was at least one other...

I'm curious as well, honestly. On one panel of the GFS the low is positioned where I would often taint with mix, and that usually implies that the QPF shield would extend well back into true Central PA. At least.

CMC with a dramatic shift in a positive way. Has a storm on the coast close enough at this point. GFS has you and me dancing in knee-deep snow. Waist deep to our NE.

Yes indeed. Like so many things in life, we live in what I like to call "The Information Age". This is really a double-edged sword kind of thing...how many times have we ourselves, a loved one, our beloved pet, etc. started to show signs of something that is concerning to us? All the time. And today, we can go online and read just about anything you want to read on said subject, both good, bad and in between. One thing at our disposal is weather models. If we have access, let's read/use them...it only makes sense. And, when tied to our passion they make a great conversation piece. And that in itself is a great thing. Sharing thoughts/opinions with others sharing the same passion connects us in ways that weren't possible years ago. Okay, I'm rambling... My issue is too many people take any information at face value. And there's the issue. On here, we love to criticize (fairly) the internet hypsters who go on Facebook, You Tube and other places and share a bizarre snow map (like the one that showed 50" over New Jersey some time ago) and people eat that shit up like a lemon meringue pie. Why? It's there for them to see. So, it has to be true. And the person who shared it, who almost certainly knows what he/she shared is a crock of loaded doodoo is laughing their way to the bank. The age of information. What a convoluted world we live in...

MU weighs in on later: Northern MD, southeastern PA and the LSV remain "trapped between the bands," and light snow will be the theme through the rest of the day. A brief burst of heavier snow is possible with the upper low between 5-9 PM, especially south of Route 30, before snow ends by midnight.

I'm not fully following this but I know for certain that any good met does not rely solely on models. I follow a good met from Millersville U. that will explain why the models are wrong in certain situations.

Models are nothing more than tools that comprise what a good met has at his/her disposal. There were good forecasters in your area that were calling for 1-3". Seems like not such a bad call right now. Models are prone to inaccuracy. The ones who were really wrong? How about the people that slammed CTP for not issuing a Winter Storm Warning for certain areas that only have about 2" on average with not a whole lot more to look forward to? It's not over yet (we'll see what happens later on) but it seems highly unlikely that York and Lanco are getting 5" from this. Seems to me that CTP had our area right. Again. And I'm sure for the next storm, they'll be taken to the woodshed prior to the storm even happening again.