Itstrainingtime

My rain gauge will be humming. Thanks for posting. Completely based off memory of past events with similar setups over the years, I've sort of felt that the Ukie map you posted yesterday at noon was the most likely depiction of what might happen. Obviously there are nuances with every individual storm, but I'd be surprised if anyone south and east of State College over to Williamsport sees more than a few inches.

Kinda depends on where that high is going - if it's escaping off the east coast, maybe notsomuch.

Something to (perhaps) keep in mind this winter...just .13" of rain fell here today. It was another in a string of underperformed storms over the past several months. Might not mean anything...just pointing it out.

Rain and 38. So far .11" has fallen.

Neither am I. Long way to go for better OR worse.

Yep, and that's why I said that I doubt it will end up like that. Anyone "expecting" snow in the LSV is once again setting themselves up for disappointment.

Exactly right.

Honestly, those maps are mostly meaningless at this point, but if it verified that way, I might need a timeout.

Not for all of the LSV.

44 and sunny here currently.

I like it when you talk like this. Much respect for your thoughts.

That looks a lot like the event a few weeks ago when those N&W of MDT got snow while we rained.

That's correct. A bunch in here were laughing at the outlandish output...that storm forever sealed the deal for me to never discount the NAM. Flaws and all.

I think? January 16 was all snow? I sort of remember driving home from work at 5pm as the snow was starting.

That's what I'm hoping for. Weather is REALLY fickle out there - last December they received 191" of snow. In January they got 0". Hoping they get into some atmospheric river events and keep piling it up!

I had to...stay in mine. LOL After receiving .33" of rain yesterday, no measurable precip has fallen here today.

It felt noticeably warmer this morning than yesterday. More like an October day.

These are the weeks when I most covet snow - love the shortened hours when snow has an opportunity to melt.

.32" of rain has fallen here so far. Drizzle, fog and 45 now.

I appreciate that. Truly. At the same time, I'm not looking to offend people and drive them away. Personal decision. I'm stopping sports and MU content.

Also, I am guilty more than most on here with my sports BS. I will cease that immediately.

I post comments from MU because: - He's a met from our local area - People have told me that they appreciate reading his thoughts. I did not think that was wrong. My bad.

There's a solid perspective/assessment from 2 mets.

He certainly didn't seem overly excited about what he was seeing in the pattern. He acknowledged that there were a couple of things working for us, but he's also been adamant that there are issues to be resolved as well. For example, late December 2021 featured a strong -NAO and Lanco finished up at +8 for a temp departure: "For anyone thinking that Greenland blocking (a -NAO) guarantees snow and cold for the mid-Atlantic States, you need only look back to last #December. The NAO was - for the last two weeks of the month, but temps were still 8°F above normal for the month at @millersvilleu.. The combination of a deep trough over western North America & ridging over the Southeast "offset" the -NAO & caused there to be very little snow and cold in southeastern PA. Although #December2022 should be chillier, we MAY see a modified version of this pattern." It's only 12/6 so a lot can and probably will change, but the overall tone/demeanor has gotten notably more somber over the past several days.

Rain/drizzle and 36. .14" of rain so far.