Itstrainingtime

MU's Tuesday PM update: Unfortunately, the forecast from tonight through the end of the week is still not "cut and dry" or "set in stone." Instead, there is still a large amount of uncertainty with respect to the timing, intensity and amount of any rain across southeastern PA and the Lower Susquehanna Valley. As mentioned above, a weak low pressure system will develop well off the North Carolina and Virginia coastlines later tonight into Wednesday. It may then track northwest for a brief period of time and get closer to the mid-Atlantic coastline. However, its northward progression will ultimately be stopped by the large-scale subsidence, or sinking motion, associated with the large high pressure system over New England and eastern Canada. As a result, the system will stall off the mid-Atlantic coastline late this week or slowly meander back out to sea. Over the past 2-3 days, computer models have shown zero consistency from run-to-run in the placement, strength and track of the coastal low. They are having a hard time resolving areas of tropical convection both near and hundreds of miles off the mid-Atlantic coastline (see below). These areas of convection are expected to eventually interact with one another, but the timing and nature of this interaction is still difficult to finesse. The surface low pressure system will initially form near one of these clusters of thunderstorms and then draw moisture from the others inward toward itself. Obviously, the farther offshore the low forms/tracks, the less rain will fall north of the Mason-Dixon Line and west of I-95. A track closer to the coast would mean numerous showers or even periods of steady to perhaps heavy rain across southeastern PA, Delaware and parts of New Jersey later tonight into Thursday. I won't dive into the weeds here, but I continue to favor the drier outcome and a track farther out to sea. Rain across Virginia is currently not as intense, widespread or as far north as anticipated just 24-36 hours ago, so I see no reason why that trend won't continue over the next two days. "Rex blocks" are often stronger and suppress storm systems farther south than modeled, and this case seems to be no exception. We'll know soon..

Wait a minute...I think you're on to something. Here, all along I thought it was a reference to my wife's reaction the first time she saw my... ...GPS while driving south through VA. *in the MA forum there was a guy who would always talk about it snowing at his place in Short Pump while nothing was happening in the I95 corridor. The metro folk got a little frustrated at the continuous reports from SW VA. *

I intentionally left him off to keep my emotions in check here at work. Damn you, Jon for getting me wound up. Tomlin's has many issues...maybe one of his worst is clock management.

Meant to include this on my football post. Yes, an unbelievably huge drop for 2 reasons. The clock stopped AND the loss of potentially the game winning TD.

THIS WAS GOING TO BE MY NEXT POST!!!! Edit: My post was going to be the map...Mammoth Lakes! Oh how I miss you!

The game sure has changed over the years, hasn't it? Eagles with a 4th and 4 early on - I'm telling my wife that they should take the points and move on, but I knew that Sirianni was going to go for it. He did, and they didn't get it. An easy call to second guess; however, there was a time when 100% of coaches in the NFL would have gladly taken the 3. The game has evolved into...gambling. LOL. Dan Campell, the Staley dude that got canned in LA are/were other coaches who wouldn't think twice about forgoing the points and gambling on getting 6. In that scenario, I felt strongly that you take the points. It figured to be a possession/low scoring game...it was, and those missed 3 points ended up huge.

Steelers have won ugly for years now.

72 in Maytown right now - feeling much better than the mid and even upper 80s we just experienced.

Had a conversation with @Bubbler86 about this a few times over the past year. Model watching to me isn't that dissimilar to gambling. I made sort of a negative comment about betting yesterday and a couple of friends responded with fair, reasonable reasons why they do gamble. (it's fun, good to do in moderation, makes watching sports more relevant, etc.) Even if it's not my thing, I can completely respect that. And for those that have fun with it and manage it well, awesome! I do tend to be a literal person. I also tend to be someone who extends trust perhaps quicker and easier than others. (and maybe more than I really should) There was a time when I took models almost verbatim...yeah, that's on me, and again, it's sort of a part of the "extension of trust" issue that I have. After getting burnt so many times, I got to the point where I was like "no more." I have very little trust in any weather model and have become skeptical up until whatever the models were showing is actually happening in my yard. At the same time, like gambling...models are put in front of us for analysis, discussion, etc. so I completely understand those who invest time into model analysis. It's a hobby, an extension of being a weather weenie. It makes more sense probably than my own personal stance. At the end of the day I most likely have distanced myself from it almost as a safeguard to prevent myself from getting too invested, and ultimately...let down. Again.

MU is calling for a 30% chance of a passing shower later tomorrow into early Wednesday. WPC cut back on expected rainfall by 75% in just one update:

Decently cooler today - 83 today vs 88 yesterday.

Irony in that comment is about 10 minutes before I saw your post, I said to my wife how sick I am of gambling ads. It's over the top and distracting to the game on the field. Last week an entire play was missed in the Steelers game all because they cut away from the game to get the updated lines. And yet...there's an epidemic of people who are broke due to irresponsible spending on games. Gee, I wonder why... Granted, I'm especially salty because I've never once placed a wager in my life. So there's that.

Hanover yesterday, Martinsburg today... Are you really Canderson? 78 here.

I mean...not to be unkind to the undoubtedly good folk of Jefferson County, but how many people in this thread are invested in today's high temperature in Jefferson County?

I'll be ducking out of my Sunday Ticket package for constant updates...

Yes, big difference from even a month or do ago. If we had this duration of dry weather in the summer we'd all have burnt lawns.

Man, nothing is easy with the O's... Positive, Corbin Burnes pitched like Corbin Burnes tonight. He was stellar.

88 was my high. Got there in plenty of time to make a run at 90 but Dubois interfered with my heat.

Huge brush fire between Columbia and Washington Boro - very, very close to my childhood home. It's getting dry and with the breeze today...

MDT sporting an 89 at 3pm, currently it's 88.2 here. Overachiever.

Cooking...up to 86.4...

Just saw this - I'm at 27 and that's down a lot from last year.

Sunny and 81 at 11:45.

Warmest day of the week so far - high was 85. Ready for fall to return.

75 @ 11:40 - running well above yesterday at this time.