Itstrainingtime

Low pressure takes a perfect (well, good enough) track for snow next weekend = 100% rain from it, in the middle of January. Sigh.

60.3 here at 12:50pm.

I don't have the numerical data, but I know for certain that this is 100% accurate. Far many more nights in the 20s and 30s instead of the teens these days compared to years ago, and look at how many summer nights now stay in the 70s.

I had a feeling that you were a fan or warm weather - I lurk in the tropical threads and see you posting more there than you do here. You're exactly right though - some are only active here in the winter, and are much more "fans of snow" while others are here year round, and are truly fans of all kinds of weather. Personally, I get just as stoked watching 4" of rain fall in an hour as I do 12" of snow fall in the winter...I'm a weather fan first and foremost.

Sunny and 58 approaching noon. Forecast high for today last I saw was 54.

I agree with almost everything that you shared here - the only thing I'll elaborate on is the part about "doom and gloom" posting. To me, the weather is the weather whether or not it's 75 or 5 in January. Comments regarding excessive warmth right now is not doom and gloom, I've seen none of that in our thread this week. I see a lot of people posting about what the weather is - abnormally warm. It's the current reality. And I'll post about it just like I post every day in July when it's 97. I enjoy posting about ALL kinds of weather. When people aren't posting about heavy snow and bitter cold that's not necessarily a negative indictment. Now - if someone says an hour before an obvious impending snowstorm "let me see how this can fail" - I will be the first one to call them out for being doom and gloom.

PSUHoffman made a great post this morning - basically, he's intrigued by next week as well. What that means in reality is that we have a 25% chance of snow instead of 7%. I like that...I think it's really close to our reality. I'm looking for snow, but also understanding that way more times than not...we're going to end up on the brown side of things. Or in this year's case, maybe green side of things.

In fairness to me, I do post/share when I feel it's warranted to do so, which I did several minutes before your post. Hey...I want it to snow BADLY, and I will jump on the excitement train when I feel it's warranted. Right now, I'm intrigued by late next week. Perhaps I'm more balanced than a lot in here, and that might in part be because I also see what can go wrong as well as what can go right.

After looking at the guidance about as closely as I have in some time, to me it looks like we have a "decent" chance at something late next week. Sure seems like there's potential - but will this end up being potential that we end up shoveling?

Sure seems like it, doesn't it?

2022 was the 11th warmest on record at Lanco in the past 109 years of record keeping.

It's been a month since I posted this - and I'm only reposting as several in here have asked me to please consider sharing MU's thoughts. A month ago, almost everyone in this thread was giddy in anticipation of snowy times ahead. MU was not. This ended being yet another great call, not only for the accuracy but also in the face of going against just about everyone else out there. I believe MU finished December with .1" of snow, despite an awful lot of pretty colored maps during the month.

4th day so far this year the AC has been running. And it's January 5th...

We've vacationed in Florida over the holidays about a dozen times over the years - we drove a lot of those times and would excitedly watch the temps drop on the car thermometer from the 70s down into the 20s as we made the journey north. A couple of those trips included bouts of wintry precip as well. I was thinking of those trips coming home from Philly late last night with temps the entire route within a couple of degrees of 60. I said to my wife "this is like an early to mid June kind of night".

44 was my low overnight - was driving home from south Philly for the first and only time this year last night and it was between 58-64 the entire trip...at 10:00pm - 12 midnight on 1/4.

I am sitting at work in a short sleeve polo while texting my wife to ensure that the cooling system is running at home.

62 at home, 64 here at work. Feels like April with extra humidity.

To your point - below is the Canadian depiction for the exact same time as the GFS image I posted above:

What I like is we're about to enter a period that should provide us with some opportunities. That's a start -we can figure out details later on, but at least we can potentially see our way to victory. Can't say that in the current pattern.

GFS blows up a nor'easter JUST too far east for us next Wednesday - storm forms off the Carolinas and bombs out as it moves NE from there. It's a Garden State mauling on this run.

It was abnormally dry out there last year, and the valleys (where everyone in CA lives) depend on Sierra snowmelt for their water supply. Not to mention the increased wildfire risks that originates from dry winters.

Meanwhile - The west coast has been, and will continue to get blitzed by AR storms over the next few weeks. Incredible rainfall in the bay area (saw some projections of over 30" of rain near SF) with heavy Sierra snow - @Mount Joy Snowman Mammoth is already well over 200" for the season at the base and they look to pick up at least 8 to 10 feet over the next 7 days. I've been hoping for one of their patented 500-700" winters and it might just work out for me. 131 days until I'm there...

No hot air from jets approaching MDT - the fog diverted the aircraft's flight pattern. LOL (though, there is probably some truth to that)

That's for sure - ironically, my temp fell into the 40s last evening at about 8pm and slowly fell from there...last time it was above 50 was prior to 8pm.