Here is CTP's AFD from 12:07pm yesterday afternoon...literally just a few hours from the onset of one of the biggest rainmakers for me this year - essentially, a 0% chance or rain reaching my area...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1207 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will linger off of the east coast through early
this week, as a ridge of high pressure holds over Pennsylvania.
A weakening cold front is likely to push through the state late
Wednesday, then high pressure should build in from the Great
Lakes to end the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 am update... Our current forecast is pretty well in hand,
so only a few cosmetic tweaks were made, based on the latest
observational data.
Late morning satellite and radar imagery showed Atlantic
moisture making a slow approach into the Commonwealth from the
east and southeast. The overall environment appears to be dry
enough across the forecast area (even the Susquehanna Valley
and western Poconos) to keep most, if any rainfall from reaching
the ground this afternoon/early evening. The latest suite of
high resolution, near-term model guidance well supports this
thinking. We`ll retain a very low chance (20-30%) of some patchy
light rain/drizzle over eastern Lancaster and Schuylkill
counties, but that`s about it.