18z ICON looks somewhat weaker as it exits the coast - 12z was a little more wound up and was throwing heavier precip back into the eastern half of PA.
With very marginal temps - weaker storm - lighter precip - less white gold and more light rain. (generalization)
The loop is from the last 3 runs of the model (0z, 6z, and 12z) for the same time stamp, which is 6z Monday morning. The loop shows that with each new run, the low is centered farther SE than the previous run.
CMC and GFS at 12z look almost identical - perhaps a bit more frozen early on in the SE on the CMC but the overall evolution is nearly lock step with the GFS.
Exactly. Most times...not all, but certainly more than enough, we want to be in the middle of the zone or even on the northern edge when we do well. Riding the southern/SE edge has not worked out for us in the past.
I agree in principle with you.
But, I think the odds are tilted very strongly against those of us SE of MDT. Hope I'm wrong!
No I don't - I'm going to Philly Sunday night. Go team rain! (after midnight Sunday, it can snow like the dickens the rest of the winter)
Never want to be on the SE edge of the blues...like, almost never does that work out. Now we're actually on the outside looking in for the blue area.
Doesn't mean it won't come back, but as you said VERY accurately, that's not the way this usually works out.
I was out for a couple of hours over lunch and didn't get to check anything - it was disheartening to log in and see NO posts on the 12z runs...I was afraid to look.
I was surprised to see that this has only been the 5th warmest January through the first half of the month, but the one thing that we haven't had is a couple of days of extreme (highs near or above 70) that we've had in a few years that are higher. Still, a remarkable turnaround considering some (but not all ) of us were shivering around Christmas.